Related papers: Has the Recession Started?
In this work, we explore the relationship between monetary poverty and production combining relatedness theory, graph theory, and regression analysis. We develop two measures at product level that capture short-run and long-run patterns of…
Policy makers often make decisions based on parameters such as GDP, unemployment rate, industrial output, etc. The primary methods to obtain or even estimate such information are resource intensive and time consuming. In order to make…
We propose a simple binarization of predictors, an "at-risk" transformation, as an alternative to the standard practice of using continuous, standardized variables in recession forecasting models. By converting predictors into indicators of…
Depression is a common yet serious mental disorder that affects millions of U.S. high schoolers every year. Still, accurate diagnosis and early detection remain significant challenges. In the field of public health, research shows that…
Both inflation and unemployment inflict social losses. When a tradeoff exists between the two, what would be the best combination of inflation and unemployment? A well known approach in economics to address this question consists to write…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
In many applications it will be useful to know those patterns that occur with a balanced interval, e.g., a certain combination of phone numbers are called almost every Friday or a group of products are sold a lot on Tuesday and Thursday. In…
In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three…
Two distinct trends can prove the existence of technological unemployment in the US. First, there are more open jobs than the number of unemployed persons looking for a job, and second, the shift of the Beveridge curve. There have been many…
The study efforts to explore and extend the crisis predictability by synthetically reviewing and comparing a full mixture of early warning models into two constitutions: crisis identifications and predictive models. Given empirical results…
We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…
The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of…
We use supervised learning to identify factors that predict the cross-section of returns and maximum drawdown for stocks in the US equity market. Our data run from January 1970 to December 2019 and our analysis includes ordinary least…
We study a regression problem where for some part of the data we observe both the label variable ($Y$) and the predictors (${\bf X}$), while for other part of the data only the predictors are given. Such a problem arises, for example, when…
This study analyses the duration dependence of events that trigger volatility persistence in stock markets. Such events, in our context, are monthly spells of contiguous price decline or negative returns for the S&P500 stock market index…
The main purpose of this study is the determination of solar minimum date of the new sunspot cycle No 24. It is provided by using of four types of mean daily data values for the period Jan 01. 2006 - Dec 31. 2009: (1) the solar radioindex…
Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007--2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and…
Do firm dynamics matter for the transmission of monetary policy? Empirically, the startup rate declines following a monetary contraction, while the exit rate increases, both of which reduce aggregate employment. I present a model that…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…
We propose a sequential monitoring scheme to find structural breaks in real estate markets. The changes in the real estate prices are modeled by a combination of linear and autoregressive terms. The monitoring scheme is based on a detector…