Related papers: Has the Recession Started?
Predicting the economy's short-term dynamics -- a vital input to economic agents' decision-making process -- often uses lagged indicators in linear models. This is typically sufficient during normal times but could prove inadequate during…
In Aarab (2020), I examine U.S. stock return predictability across economic regimes and document evidence of time-varying expected returns across market states in the long run. The analysis introduces a state-switching specification in…
The US stock market experienced instability following the recession (2007-2009). COVID-19 poses a significant challenge to US stock traders and investors. Traders and investors should keep up with the stock market. This is to mitigate risks…
This paper documents changes in retirement saving patterns at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct a large panel of U.S. tax data, including tens of millions of person-year observations, and measure retirement savings…
Using high-quality nation-wide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and…
Following findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP…
To measure the impacts on U.S. rail and intermodal freight by economic disruptions of the 2007-09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper uses time series analysis with the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)…
Academics and practitioners have studied over the years models for predicting firms bankruptcy, using statistical and machine-learning approaches. An earlier sign that a company has financial difficulties and may eventually bankrupt is…
Time series subject to change in regime have attracted much interest in domains such as econometry, finance or meteorology. For discrete-valued regimes, some models such as the popular Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) describe time series whose…
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between electoral polls and indicators of economic and financial uncertainty during the last two U.S. presidential elections (2020 and 2024). Using daily polling data on Donald Trump and measures…
We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…
Large and acute economic shocks such as the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the current COVID-19 infections rapidly change the economic environment. In such a situation, the importance of real-time economic analysis using alternative datais…
By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…
Prediction of post-loan default is an important task in credit risk management, and can be addressed by detection of financial anomalies using machine learning. This study introduces a ResE-BiLSTM model, using a sliding window technique,…
Forecasting inflation in small open economies is difficult because limited time series and strong external exposures create an imbalance between few observations and many potential predictors. We study this challenge using Thailand as a…
The semiconductor industry is one of the most technology-evolving and capital-intensive market sectors. Effective inspection and metrology are necessary to improve product yield, increase product quality and reduce costs. In recent years,…
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913-2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it has made it possible to detect…
Inflation is the currently accepted paradigm for the beginnings of the Universe. To explain the observed almost scale invariant spectrum of density perturbations with only a slight spectral tilt, inflation must have been "slow roll", that…
Droughts are a recurring hazard in sub-Saharan Africa, that can wreak huge socioeconomic costs.Acting early based on alerts provided by early warning systems (EWS) can potentially provide substantial mitigation, reducing the financial and…