Related papers: Has the Recession Started?
Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the behaviour of agents (in…
This paper considers the problem of testing and estimation of change point where signals after the change point can be highly irregular, which departs from the existing literature that assumes signals after the change point to be piece-wise…
We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…
A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node…
This paper proposes optimal lockdown management policies based on short-term prediction of active COVID-19 confirmed cases to ensure the availability of critical medical resources. The optimal time to start the lockdown from the current…
The new coronavirus outbreak has been officially declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. To grapple with the rapid spread of this ongoing pandemic, most countries have banned indoor and outdoor gatherings and ordered…
The aim of this work is to explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic Agent-Based models (ABM) can reproduce. We propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its 'phase…
The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…
Automatic speech recognition (ASR) technology can aid in the detection, monitoring, and assessment of depressive symptoms in individuals. ASR systems have been used as a tool to analyze speech patterns and characteristics that are…
The forecasting of political, economic, and public health indicators using internet activity has demonstrated mixed results. For example, while some measures of explicitly surveyed public opinion correlate well with social media proxies,…
We consider price competition among multiple sellers over a selling horizon of $T$ periods. In each period, sellers simultaneously offer their prices (which are made public) and subsequently observe their respective demand (not made…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
For the Ramsey model of economic growth, which describes the optimal allocation of consumption and saving over time, we assume the population dynamics to follow the Allee effect. The so-called Allee threshold separates two regimes from each…
The increasing frequency of environmental hazards due to climate change underscores the urgent need for effective monitoring systems. Current approaches either rely on expensive labelled datasets, struggle with seasonal variations, or…
This paper aims to compute the unemployment rate $u^*$ that is consistent with full employment in the United States. First, it argues that the most appropriate economic translation of the legal notion of full employment is social…
Monthly and weekly economic indicators are often taken to be the largest common factor estimated from high and low frequency data, either separately or jointly. To incorporate mixed frequency information without directly modeling them, we…
The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this…
Regimes routinely conceal acts of repression. We show that observed repression may be negatively correlated with total repression, consisting of both revealed and concealed acts. This distortion can generate perverse effects for policy…
We investigate the end of the inflationary period in the recently proposed scenario of locked inflation, and consider various constraints arising from density perturbations, loop corrections, parametric resonance and defect formation. We…
This report explores the use of Zillow's housing metrics dataset to investigate the effects of the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis on various US locales. We begin by exploring the causes of the recession and the metrics available to us in…