Related papers: Has the Recession Started?
In this study, we seek to understand how macroeconomic factors such as GDP, inflation, Unemployment Insurance, and S&P 500 index; as well as microeconomic factors such as health, race, and educational attainment impacted the unemployment…
In this paper we apply a time series based Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) approach to the problem of predicting unemployment insurance claims in different census regions of the United States. Unemployment insurance claims data, reported…
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in…
The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions customarily uses 10-year--three-month Treasury yield spread without verification on the pair selection. This study investigates whether the predictive ability of spread can be…
Many large and small companies in the tech and startup sector have been laying off an unusually high number of workers in 2022 and 2023. We are interested in predicting when this period of layoffs might end, without resorting to economic…
The stock market is volatile and complicated, especially in 2020. Because of a series of global and regional "black swans," such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. stock market triggered the circuit breaker three times within one week of…
This paper demonstrates how reinforcement learning can explain two puzzling empirical patterns in household consumption behavior during economic downturns. I develop a model where agents use Q-learning with neural network approximation to…
We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching…
The theorems we proved describe the structure of economic equilibrium in the exchange economy model. We have studied the structure of property vectors under given structure of demand vectors at which given price vector is equilibrium one.…
During the Great Recession, Democrats in the United States argued that government spending could be utilized to "grease the wheels" of the economy in order to create wealth and to increase employment; Republicans, on the other hand,…
This study provides the first confirmation that individual employment status can be predicted from standard mobile phone network logs externally validated with household survey data. Individual welfare and households vulnerability to shocks…
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…
Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle…
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict…
Inferring the uncertainty in economic conditions is significant for both decision makers as well as market players. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to measure the economic uncertainties by using the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We…
A hypothesis that the financial log-periodicity, cascading self-similarity through various time scales, carries signatures of a law is pursued. It is shown that the most significant historical financial events can be classified amazingly…
The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…
This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth,…
Adaptation level and animal spirits (Middleton 1996) presented a psychophysical theory of confidence levels based on the oldest and probably most widely observed law in psychology, the sensitivity to adaptation level. For Americans, whose…