How to predict and avert economic crisis
Abstract
Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a result, appearance of economic crisis is determined by two points; that is, (a). Stock market approaches perfect competition; (b). Society reaches full employment. The empirical research of these two points would lead to early warning of economic crisis. Moreover, it is a surprise that the state of economic crisis would be a feasible equilibrium within the framework of the Arrow-Debreu model. That means that we can not understand the origin of economic crisis within the framework of modern economics, for example, the general equilibrium theory.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1010.5154,
title = {How to predict and avert economic crisis},
author = {Yong Tao},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1010.5154},
year = {2010}
}
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4 pages