Related papers: Outbreak-size distributions under fluctuating rate…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
Gene expression is inherently a noisy process which manifests as cell-to-cell variability in time evolution of proteins. Consequently, events that trigger at critical threshold levels of regulatory proteins exhibit stochasticity in their…
The study of thermodynamic properties of microscopic systems, such as a colloid in a fluid, has been of great interest to researchers since the discovery of the fluctuation theorem and associated laws of stochastic thermodynamics. However,…
A randomly interacting N-species Lotka-Volterra system in the presence of a Gaussian multiplicative noise is analyzed. The investigation is focused on the role of this external noise into the statistical properties of the extinction times…
Changing environmental conditions can significantly affect the dynamics of disease spread. These changes may arise naturally or result from human interventions; in the latter case, lockdown measures that lead to abrupt but temporary…
We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school…
We study the SIRS epidemic model, both analytically and on a square lattice. The analytic model has two stable solutions, post outbreak/epidemic (no infected, $I=0$) and the endemic state (constant number of infected: $I>0$). When the model…
In this paper, we present a stochastic SVEIS epidemic model perturbed by a Black-Karasinski process. Using a Lyapunov functional approach, we derive a sufficient condition, Rs0>1 for the existence of a stationary distribution, which…
We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on Erd\H os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate $\rho$ and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical…
The return distributions of the coherent noise model are studied for the system size independent case. It is shown that, in this case, these distributions are in the shape of q-Gaussians, which are the standard distributions obtained in…
A noise source model, consisting of a pulse sequence at random times with memory, is presented. By varying the memory we can obtain variable randomness of the stochastic process. The delay time between pulses, i. e. the noise memory,…
Recently, emerging epidemics like COVID-19 and its variants require predictive mathematical models to implement suitable responses in order to limit their negative and profound impact on society. The SIR (Susceptible-InfectedRemoved) system…
We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control.…
During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of cases. The first observation of such…
We discuss a model of a system of interacting populations for the case when: (i) the growth rates and the coefficients of interaction among the populations depend on the populations densities: and (ii) the environment influences the growth…
In this paper, we study a linear control system with a given state feedback law. The system is influenced by rapid random sampling occurring at frequency $\frac 1n, n \in \mathbb N$, as well as by white noise of small intensity $\varepsilon…
We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…
The Robust Effect Size Index (RESI) is a recently proposed standardized effect size to quantify association strength across models. However, its confidence interval construction has relied on computationally intensive bootstrap procedures.…
This paper investigates the exit-time problem for time-inhomogeneous diffusion processes. The focus is on the small-noise behavior of the exit time from a bounded positively invariant domain. We demonstrate that, when the drift and…
We study the early stages of viral infection, and the distribution of times to obtain a persistent infection. The virus population proliferates by entering and reproducing inside a target cell until a sufficient number of new virus…