Related papers: Outbreak-size distributions under fluctuating rate…
We study the effects of time-varying environmental noise on nonequilibrium phase transitions in spreading and growth processes. Using the examples of the logistic evolution equation as well as the contact process, we show that such temporal…
We look at the interaction of dispersal and environmental stochasticity in $n$-patch models. We are able to prove persistence and extinction results even in the setting when the dispersal rates are stochastic. As applications we look at…
We consider a system of $d$ non-linear stochastic heat equations driven by an $m$-dimensional space-time white noise on $\mathbb{R}_+\times \mathbb{R}$. In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of spatial averages over large intervals…
We have performed individual-based lattice simulations of SIR and SEIR dynamics to investigate both the short and long-term dynamics of childhood epidemics. In our model, infection takes place through a combination of local and long-range…
We study noise-averaged observables for a system of exchange-coupled quantum spins (qubits), each subject to a stochastic drive, by establishing mappings onto stochastic models in the strong-noise limit. Averaging over noise yields…
We study two problems. First, we consider the large deviation behavior of empirical measures of certain diffusion processes as, simultaneously, the time horizon becomes large and noise becomes vanishingly small. The law of large numbers…
In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to…
Recently, a first step was made by the authors towards a systematic investigation of the effect of reaction-step-size noise - uncertainty in the step size of the reaction - on the dynamics of stochastic populations. This was done by…
Quantum graphs with leads to infinity serve as convenient models for studying various aspects of systems which are usually attributed to chaotic scattering. They are also studied in several experimental systems and practical applications.…
Logarithmic growth-rates are fundamental observables for describing ecological systems and the characterization of their distributions with analytical techniques can greatly improve their comprehension. Here a neutral model based on a…
In a collection of particles performing independent random walks on $\mathbb Z^d$ we study the spread of an infection with SIR dynamics. Susceptible particles become infected when they meet an infected particle. Infected particles heal and…
Finite-size effects in the Kuramoto model are known to induce collective fluctuations even below the critical coupling, where the thermodynamic limit predicts complete asynchrony. While the shot-noise approach developed in our recent work…
Although viral spreading processes taking place in networks are often analyzed using Markovian models in which both the transmission and the recovery times follow exponential distributions, empirical studies show that, in many real…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…
We show that large, slowly driven systems can evolve to a self-organized critical state where long range temporal correlations between bursts or avalanches produce low frequency $1/f^{\alpha}$ noise. The avalanches can occur instantaneously…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the…
Stochastic fluctuations are central to the understanding of extinction dynamics. In the context of population models they allow for the description of the transition from the vicinity of a non-trivial fixed point of the deterministic…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large…
We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the fluctuation process for large stochastic systems of interacting particles driven by both idiosyncratic and common noise with an interaction kernel \(k \in L^2(\R^d) \cap L^\infty(\R^d)\). Our…