Related papers: Constraining the global mean surface temperature d…
Orbital forcing plays a key role in pacing the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the mechanistic linkages between the orbital parameters - eccentricity, obliquity, and precession - and global ice volume remain unclear. Here, we…
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 $^\circ$C. To narrow this range, we group 38 GCMs into low, medium…
Various interpretations of the notion of a trend in the context of global warming are discussed, contrasting the difference between viewing a trend as the deterministic response to an external forcing and viewing it as a slow variation…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10-11, 20-21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface…
The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…
A Chow test for structural breaks in the surface temperature series is used to investigate two common claims about global warming. Quirk (2009) proposed that the increase in Australian temperature from 1910 to the present was largely…
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that…
Climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, significant differences in climate model projections for given scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, continue to hinder detailed assessment. Here we…
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat…
Several complicated non-linear models exist which simulate the physical processes leading to fluctuations in global climate. Some of these more advanced models use observations to constrain various parameters involved. However, they tend to…
The attribution of part of global warming to changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) is an important topic which is not, yet, fully understood. Here, we examine the TSI induced temperature (T) changes on a variety of time scales, from…
Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and…
Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…
Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3$^\circ$C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6$^\circ$C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates…
The inter-relation of clouds, solar irradiance and surface temperature is complex and subject to different interpretations. Here, we continue our recent work, which related mainly to the period from 1960 to the present, back to 1900 with…
In this lengthy letter, we wanted to discuss the concept of climate based on definitions established for over a century and direct observations that we have been collecting for more than a century as well. To do this, we present and discuss…
While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…
We produce new reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere annually averaged temperature anomalies back to 1000 AD, and explore the effects of including external climate forcings within the reconstruction and of accounting for short-memory and…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…