Related papers: Constraining the global mean surface temperature d…
Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
We present here formal evidence of a strong linkage between temperature and East Antarctic ice accumulation over the past eight hundred kiloyears, after accounting for thinning. The conclusions are based on statistical analysis of a…
What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative forcing seem to be characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate of growth. The first occurs in the early 60s and indicates a very large increase in the…
To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with…
Global responses of the hydrological cycle to climate change have been widely studied but uncertainties of temperature responses to lower-tropospheric water vapor still remain. Here, we investigate the trends in global total precipitable…
There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters, such as temperature, storminess, precipitation, etc, an obvious point being that…
Revealing the ongoing changes in ocean dynamics and their impact on marine ecosystems requires the joint analysis of multiple variables. Yet, global observational records only cover a few decades, posing a challenge in the separation of…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…
The microscopic quantum field theory origins of warm inflation dynamics are reviewed. The warm inflation scenario is first described along with its results, predictions and comparison with the standard cold inflation scenario. The basics of…
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we…
The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared. In the framework of proposed…
Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…
A search has been made for a contribution of the changing cosmic ray intensity to the global warming observed in the last century. The cosmic ray intensity shows a strong 11 year cycle due to solar modulation and the overall rate has…
This paper estimates the two-component energy balance model as a linear state space system (EBM-SS model) using historical data. It is a joint model for the temperature in the mixed layer, the temperature in the deep ocean layer, and…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC collapse is +4.0C (uncertainty range 1.4-8C). However, such a…
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…
This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for…