Related papers: Constraining the global mean surface temperature d…
We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
New results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and multiple global reanalysis datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the mean and standard deviation in the surface air temperature. A…
Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation…
We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Once carbon emission neutrality and other sustainability goals have been achieved, a widespread assumption is that economic growth at current rates can be sustained beyond the 21st century. However, even if we achieve these goals, this…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…
Stips, Macias, Coughlan, Garcia-Gorriz, and Liang (2016, Nature Scientific Reports) use information flows (Liang, 2008, 2014) to establish causality from various forcings to global temperature. We show that the formulas being used hinges on…
We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the…
Global warming's impact on high temperatures in various parts of the world has raised concerns. This study investigates long-term temperature trends in four major Ghanaian cities representing distinct climatic zones. Using NASA's Prediction…
Global and regional annual mean temperature data have been analysed by many groups to determine the linear trends of temperature over climatological time scales. The near consistent results generally show an increase of about 0.07 {\deg}C…
It has recently been claimed that there is significant coherence between the spectral peaks of the global temperature series over the last 160 years and those of the speed of the solar center of mass at periods of 10-10.5, 20-21, 30 and…
The mean North American and world climates have warmed significantly since the beginning of climatologically significant anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in the 19th Century. It has been suggested that warming may increase the…
Temperature uncertainty models for land and sea surfaces can be developed based on statistical methods. In this paper, we developed a novel time series temperature uncertainty model which is the Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA)(1, 1)…
Gil-Alana et al. (Physica A: 396, 42-50, 2014) compared the sunspot number record and the temperature record and found that they differ: the sunspot number record is characterized by a dominant 11-year cycle while the temperature record…
We study, by using a wavelet decomposition methodology, the solar signature on global surface temperature data using the ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite by Willson and Mordvinov. These data present a +0.047%/decade trend…
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar…
In this work, we propose an approach to teaching global warming adapted to the new high school curricula. The aim is to build a link between CO$_2$ emissions and the rise in the Earth's average temperature, based as far as possible on…
What is certain is that surface temperatures around the globe vary considerably, regardless of the time scales or underlying causes. Since 1850, we have observed an average increase in global surface temperature anomalies of 1.2$^{\circ}$…