Related papers: Constraining the global mean surface temperature d…
In this paper, we present a semiparametric model for describing the effect of temperature on Antarctic ice accumulation on a paleoclimatic time scale. The model is motivated by sharp ups and downs in the rate of ice accumulation apparent…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
Predicting historic temperatures based on tree rings, ice cores, and other natural proxies is a difficult endeavor. The relationship between proxies and temperature is weak and the number of proxies is far larger than the number of target…
Whether natural factors could interpret the rise of the Earth's surface temperature is still controversial. Though numerous recent researches have reported apparent correlations between solar activity and the Earth's climate, solar activity…
In a recent paper attempts were made to quantify the respective solar and anthropogenic influences on the terrestrial climate, and to cautiously predict the global mean temperature over the next 130 years. In a double regression analysis,…
The thermodynamic approach shows that the total energy produced by humanity disrupts the thermal balance of the planet and causes counteraction, that is, climate change, which can slow down the progress of civilization. This outcome not…
Despite a fainter Sun, the surface of the early Earth was mostly ice-free. Proposed solutions to this so-called "faint young Sun problem" have usually involved higher amounts of greenhouse gases than present in the modern-day atmosphere.…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that…
The recent increase in global temperature is attributed to anthropological global warming, (A.G.W), with a minor role for natural trends in temperature. The I.P.P.C estimates natural temperature (NAT) from climate models and attributes the…
It is commonly accepted that the variations of Earth's orbit and obliquity control the timing of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Evidence comes from power spectrum analysis of palaeoclimate records and from inspection of the timing…
Multiple changes in Earth's climate system have been observed over the past decades. Determining how likely each of these changes are to have been caused by human influence, is important for decision making on mitigation and adaptation…
The importance of snow cover and ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere was recognized by various authors leading to a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. In fact, the retreat of Arctic sea ice is accompanied by enhanced…
The temporal fluctuations in global mean surface temperature is an example of a geophysical quantity which can be described using the notions of long-range persistence and scale invariance/scaling, but this description has suffered from…
A linearized energy-balance model for global temperature is formulated, featuring a scale-free long-range memory (LRM) response and stochastic forcing representing the influence on the ocean heat reservoir from atmospheric weather systems.…
The importance of the sea ice retreat in the polar regions for the global warming and the role of ice-albedo feedback was recognized by various authors [1,2]. Similar to a recent study of the phenomenon in the Arctic [3] we present a…
Using feedback-free estimates of the warming by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and observed rates of increase, we estimate that if the United States (U.S.) eliminated net CO2 emissions by the year 2050, this would avert a…