Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures for this purpose. We now compare these statistical SST predictions with SST predictions made by an ensemble mean of IPCC climate models.
@article{arxiv.physics/0701165,
title = {Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods},
author = {Thomas Laepple and Stephen Jewson},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0701165},
year = {2007}
}