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Time series forecasting has played a pivotal role across various industries, including finance, transportation, energy, healthcare, and climate. Due to the abundant seasonal information they contain, timestamps possess the potential to…
The thesis of a capitalist road to communism (van der Veen and Van Parijs, 1986) asserts that Marx realm of freedom can be reached from within welfare capitalism, skipping socialism, by using a tax-financed unconditional basic income until…
We propose a new approach to estimate government worker skills, a setting where output is hard to observe and wages may be uninformative about skills. The approach uses wages in comparable jobs in the private sector and machine learning…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial…
The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of…
This study uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) Methodology as well as Vector Error Correction (VEC) Methodology to examine the existence and direction of causality between economic growth and IMF lending for Ukraine. The paper examines the IMF…
We present here a general framework, expressed by a system of nonlinear differential equations, suitable for the modelling of taxation and redistribution in a closed (trading market) society. This framework allows to describe the evolution…
Accurate forecasting in the e-commerce finance domain is particularly challenging due to irregular invoice schedules, payment deferrals, and user-specific behavioral variability. These factors, combined with sparse datasets and short…
Dealing with quadratic payments, marginal probability is usually considered ideally constant, maybe for the sake of initial simplicity. Considering the voting scenario depicted in "Quadratic Payments: A Primer" by Vitalik Buterin, firstly…
This paper describes a fundamental and empirically conspicuous problem inherent to surveys of human feelings and opinions in which subjective responses are elicited on numerical scales. The paper also proposes a solution. The problem is a…
The ongoing process of liberalization, as well as the intensive technological breakthrough have a great impact either on the macroeconomic policy creators, or the dissimilarity of conventional approach to found a strategy of a certain…
We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to…
This paper combines traditional panel econometrics with random forest machine learning to revisit the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for 27 transition economies over 1991-2019. Exploiting the Couharde-Grekou…
In the research there is reviewed the peculiarities of the formation of tax revenues of the state budget, analysis of the recent past and present periods of tax system in Georgia, there is reviewed the influence of existing factors on the…
Tackling real-world socio-economic challenges requires designing and testing economic policies. However, this is hard in practice, due to a lack of appropriate (micro-level) economic data and limited opportunity to experiment. In this work,…
We develop a novel fixed-k tail regression method that accommodates the unique feature in the Forbes 400 data that observations are truncated from below at the 400th largest order statistic. Applying this method, we find that higher maximum…
Understanding the business cycle is crucial for building economic stability, guiding business planning, and informing investment decisions. The business cycle refers to the recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in economic activity…
In a low-dimensional linear regression setup, considering linear transformations/combinations of predictors does not alter predictions. However, when the forecasting technology either uses shrinkage or is nonlinear, it does. This is…
Tax administrative cost reduction is an economically and socially desirable goal for public policy. This article proposes total administrative cost as percentage of total tax revenue as a vivid measurand, also useful for cross-jurisdiction…