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Economic competition between humans leads to income inequality, but, so far, there has been little understanding of underlying quantitative mechanisms governing such a collective behavior. We analyze datasets of household income from 67…
Brazil's working-time debate is no longer only a choice between keeping the 44-hour week and moving directly to 36 hours. Alternatives around 40 hours, a five-day schedule and phased transitions are also on the table. This policy note asks…
We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for…
Do low corporate taxes always favor multinational production over economic integration? We propose a two-country model in which multinationals choose the locations of production plants and foreign distribution affiliates and shift profits…
On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company.…
The paper investigates the effects of the credit market development on the labor mobility between the informal and formal labor sectors. In the case of Russia, due to the absence of a credit score system, a formal lender may set a credit…
The aim of the present article is to treat the Greek public debt issue strictly as a curve fitting problem. Thus, based on Eurostat data and using the Mathematica technical computing software, an exponential function that best fits the data…
Villalobos et al. [2024] predict that publicly available human text will be exhausted within the next decade. Thus, improving models without access to ground-truth labels becomes increasingly important. We propose a label-free…
The economic and banking importance of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector is well recognized in contemporary society. Business credit loans are very important for the operation of SMEs, and the revenue is a key indicator of credit…
This paper asks how institutional stock-market integration reshapes the transmission of monetary policy through asset prices in small open economies. Motivated by the persistent segmentation of Western Balkan capital markets, we develop a…
American income inequality, generally estimated with tax data, in the 20th century is widely recognized to have followed a U-curve, though debates persist over the extent of this curve, specifically regarding how high the peaks are and how…
Two classical hypotheses are examined about the population growth in a system of cities: Hypothesis 1 pertains to Gibrat's and Zipf's theory which states that the city growth-decay process is size independent; Hypothesis 2 pertains to the…
This paper provides a general method to directly translate a classical economic framework with a large number of agents into a field-formalism model. This type of formalism allows the analytical treatment of economic models with an…
This paper re-examines the empirical Phillips curve (PC) model and its usefulness in the context of medium-term inflation forecasting. A latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis is formulated and tested using 3,968 randomly generated…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for…
This paper shows that disregarding the information effects around the European Central Bank monetary policy decision announcements biases its international spillovers. Using data from 23 economies, both Emerging and Advanced, I show that…
For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An…
Betting markets are gaining in popularity. Mean beliefs generally differ from prices in prediction markets. Logarithmic utility is employed to study the risk and return adjustments to prices. Some consequences are described. A modified…
A novel forecast linear augmented projection (FLAP) method is introduced, which reduces the forecast error variance of any unbiased multivariate forecast without introducing bias. The method first constructs new component series which are…
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early…