Related papers: Simplifying and Improving: Revisiting Bulgaria's R…
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model…
Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts…
Explaining empirically observed wealth and income distributions, featuring power-law tails alongside gamma or log-normal bulk shapes, challenges models that focus on either pairwise competition or individual investment mechanisms. This…
We analyze the income distribution of employees for 9 consecutive years (2001-2009) using a complete social security database for an economically important district of Romania. The database contains detailed information on more than half…
I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to…
Central banks rely on density forecasts from professional surveys to assess inflation risks and communicate uncertainty. A central challenge in using these surveys is irregular participation: forecasters enter and exit, skip rounds, and…
In countries with a growing number of elderly and a shrinking workforce, one of which is Russia, it becomes impossible to maintain a solidary pension system and a need to switch to a more stable funded system appears. This paper analyzes…
Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) remains challenging due to the trade-off between parallel efficiency and sequential modeling of temporal coherence. Direct multi-step forecasting (DMS) methods enable fast, parallel prediction of all…
Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…
Long-term unemployment (LTU) is a challenge for both jobseekers and public employment services. Statistical profiling tools are increasingly used to predict LTU risk. Some profiling tools are opaque, black-box machine learning models, which…
The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free market; products of a representative good and agents forming the economic network. The economy is treated as a self-organized…
Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a…
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several…
Personal income distributions in Japan are analyzed empirically and a simple stochastic model of the income process is proposed. Based on empirical facts, we propose a minimal two-factor model. Our model of personal income consists of an…
This paper presents a novel approach to electricity price forecasting (EPF) using a pure Transformer model. As opposed to other alternatives, no other recurrent network is used in combination to the attention mechanism. Hence, showing that…
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in…
Many macroeconomic policy questions may be assessed in a case study framework, where the time series of a treated unit is compared to a counterfactual constructed from a large pool of control units. I provide a general framework for this…
Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in…
Time-series forecasts play a critical role in business planning. However, forecasters typically optimize objectives that are agnostic to downstream business goals and thus can produce forecasts misaligned with business preferences. In this…
This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919-1923, we show that inflation led…