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Choosing the technique that is the best at forecasting your data, is a problem that arises in any forecasting application. Decades of research have resulted into an enormous amount of forecasting methods that stem from statistics,…
Modern applications require methods that are computationally feasible on large datasets but also preserve statistical efficiency. Frequently, these two concerns are seen as contradictory: approximation methods that enable computation are…
In this paper, we argue that some of the most popular short-term interest models have to be revisited and modified to reflect current market conditions better. In particular, we propose a modification of the popular Black-Karasinski model,…
In the so-called ``fair'' models of peer-to-peer wealth exchanges, economic inequality tends to reach its maximum value asymptotically. This global trend is evident as the richest continuously accumulate a larger share of wealth at the…
Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…
Revenues obtained from the corporate tax heads play significant roles in any economy as they can be prioritized for producing public goods and employment creations, among others. As such, corporate tax revenue should be paid enough…
Predicting the economy's short-term dynamics -- a vital input to economic agents' decision-making process -- often uses lagged indicators in linear models. This is typically sufficient during normal times but could prove inadequate during…
As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…
Firm disclosures about future prospects are crucial for corporate valuation and compliance with global regulations, such as the EU's MAR and the US's SEC Rule 10b-5 and RegFD. To comply with disclosure obligations, issuers must identify…
The estimation of inequality and poverty measures is frequently constrained by a lack of individual data. Many countries, including China, continue to report income data in the form of aggregated income shares. In this context, the Beta…
Starting from inhomogeneous time scaling and linear decorrelation between successive price returns, Baldovin and Stella recently proposed a way to build a model describing the time evolution of a financial index. We first make it fully…
The study aims to identify the institutional flaws of the current EU waste management model by analysing the economic model of extended producer responsibility and collective waste management systems and to create a model for measuring the…
The aim of this work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimes in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred…
The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based…
This paper develops a nonparametric statistical model of wealth distribution that imposes little structure on the fluctuations of household wealth. In this setting, we use new techniques to obtain a closed-form household-by-household…
This work analyzes the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD) of personal income, formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the economically less favorable part of the population of a country,…
The problem of determining the value of statistical life in Ukraine in order to find ways to improve it is an urgent one now. The current level of value is analyzed, which is a direct consequence of the poor quality of life of a citizen,…
This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…
In this paper we present a simplified model of a proportional taxation system where citizens decide whether to pay taxes or evade them. We initially derive a dynamic equation for the fraction of evaders and then present both its critical…
How should taxes on externality-generating activities be adjusted if they are regressive? In our model, the government raises revenue using distortionary income and commodity taxes. If more or less productive people have identical tastes…