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We estimate the effect of cigarette price and tax increases on smoking rates using Eurobarometer survey data from 27 European Union countries between 2012 and 2020. Following a difference-in-differences approach, we compare individuals…
Socio-economic inequalities derived from an exhaustive wealth distribution is studied in a closed geographical region from Transylvania (Romania). Exhaustive wealth data is computed from the agricultural records of the Sancraiu commune for…
We use a FAVAR model with proxy variables and sign restrictions to investigate the role of the euro area's common output and inflation cycles in the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Our findings indicate that common cycles explain…
We introduce a highly stylized, yet non trivial model of the economy, with a public and private sector coupled through a wealth tax and a redistribution policy. The model can be fully solved analytically, and allows one to address the…
A customized internet survey experiment is conducted in Japan to examine how individuals' relative income position influences preferences for income redistribution and individual perceptions regarding income tax burden. I first asked…
We compare forecasts of United States inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to predictions made by simple statistical techniques. In nowcasting, economic expertise is persuasive. When projecting beyond the current…
Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…
Wealth taxes are a frequently proposed policy within the post-growth literature, but evaluations of their alignment with post-growth goals, and empirical estimates of their potential effects, are lacking. We contribute to this literature by…
We study optimal taxation when citizens are not fully confident that the government will transform tax revenue into useful public goods. In an otherwise standard Ramsey framework, a representative agent values a public good financed by…
This paper proposes a new objective function and quantile regression (QR) algorithm for load forecasting (LF). In LF, the positive forecasting errors often have different economic impact from the negative forecasting errors. Considering…
Pareto's law states that the distribution of personal income obeys a power-law in the high-income range, and has been supported by international observations. Researchers have proposed models over a century since its discovery. However, the…
Following the oil-price surge in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many countries in the EU are cutting taxes on petrol and diesel. Using standard theory and empirical estimates, we assess how such tax cuts influence the oil income…
This work extends a previous work in regime detection, which allowed trading positions to be profitably adjusted when a new regime was detected, to ex ante prediction of regimes, leading to substantial performance improvements over the…
We show that public firm profit rates fell by half since 1980. Inferred as the residual from the rise of US corporate profit rates in aggregate data, private firm profit rates doubled since 1980. Public firm financial returns matched their…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this…
This paper studies linear overparameterized models in economic forecasting and highlights that including noise variables (regressors with no predictive power) regularizes the estimator. We consider a setting where both the outcome variable…
This study examined the relationship between trade facilitation and economic growth among the middle-income countries from 2010 to 2020 using 94 countries made up of 48 lower-middle-income countries and 46 upper-middle-income countries. The…
We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the…
Traditional finance and macroeconomic models usually assume people can form rational expectations or reach them via a learning path by minimizing prediction errors. The recent Reference Model Based Learning (RMBL) model provides a new…