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This paper aims to examine the use of sparse methods to forecast the real, in the chain-linked volume sense, expenditure components of the US and EU GDP in the short-run sooner than the national institutions of statistics officially release…
The field of electricity price forecasting has seen significant advances in the last years, including the development of new, more accurate forecast models. These models leverage statistical relationships in previously observed data to…
In this work we use an inelastic scattering process of particles to propose a model able to reproduce the salient features of the wealth distribution in an economy by including taxes to each trading process and redistributing that collected…
This paper provides a comprehensive examination of a Brazilian corporate tax reform targeted at the sector and product level. Difference-in-differences estimates instrumented by sector eligibility show that a 20 percentage point cut on…
Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…
Machine learning algorithms can now outperform classic economic models in predicting quantities ranging from bargaining outcomes, to choice under uncertainty, to an individual's future jobs and wages. Yet this predictive accuracy comes at a…
The paradox of the energy transition is that the low marginal costs of new renewable energy sources (RES) drag electricity prices down and discourage investments in flexible productions that are needed to compensate for the lack of…
The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has led to an increasing interest in Universal Basic Income (UBI) proposals as it exposed the inadequacy of traditional welfare systems to provide basic financial security to a large share of the…
The integration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries into the European Economic Area serves as a valuable experiment for the regional economic development theory. The long-lasting convergence of these economies with more advanced…
The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary…
Microscopic models describing a whole of economic interactions in a closed society are considered. The presence of a tax system combined with a redistribution process is taken into account, as well as the occurrence of tax evasion. In…
Standard macroeconomic frameworks have correctly identified Japan's government debt - now exceeding 240% of GDP - as carrying substantial fiscal risk. Yet FRED data from 2013 to 2026 present an empirical record inviting a complementary…
This article concerns the optimal choice of flat taxes on labor and capital income, and on consumption, in a tractable economic model in which agents are subject to idiosyncratic investment risk. We identify the tax rates which maximize…
Economic growth results from countries' accumulation of organizational and technological capabilities. The Economic and Product Complexity Indices, introduced as an attempt to measure these capabilities from a country's basket of exported…
We revisit the results of Harvie (2000) and show how correcting for a reporting mistake in some of the estimated parameter values leads to significantly different conclusions, including realistic parameter values for the Philips curve and…
A country's mix of products predicts its subsequent pattern of diversification and economic growth. But does this product mix also predict income inequality? Here we combine methods from econometrics, network science, and economic…
Grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to estimate income inequality due to the lack of availability of individual records. Most prior research on economic inequality relies on lower bounds of inequality…
Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…
This paper introduces the concept of Engineering Economy as a new paradigm for understanding and managing macroeconomic policy in middle-income countries seeking to escape the middle-income trap. Drawing on Turkiye's post-2001 economic…
This study examines the lack of redistributive effectiveness of consumption-based tax systems with respect to social fairness. Through numerical simulations, we explore the wealth exchanges among economic agents subject to flat consumption…