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One of the key performance measures in queueing systems is the exponential decay rate of the steady-state tail probabilities of the queue lengths. It is known that if a corresponding fluid model is stable and the stochastic primitives have…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 David Gamarnik , Sean Meyn

We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Remco van der Hofstad , Harsha Honnappa

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

We establish a strong Gaussian approximation for high-dimensional non-degenerate U-statistics with diverging dimension. Under mild assumptions, we construct, on a sufficiently rich probability space, a Gaussian process that uniformly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Weijia Li , Leheng Cai , Qirui Hu

We obtain in this paper a non-asymptotic non-improvable up to multiplicative constant moment and exponential tail estimates for distribution for U-statistics by means of martingale representation. We show also the exactness of obtained…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-02 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

There is accumulating evidence in the literature that stability of learning algorithms is a key characteristic that permits a learning algorithm to generalize. Despite various insightful results in this direction, there seems to be an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-10 Karim Abou-Moustafa , Csaba Szepesvari

The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm. While many works provide high-probability guarantees, quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Aleksandar Armacki , Dragana Bajović , Dušan Jakovetić , Soummya Kar , Ali H. Sayed

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-29 Michael I. Tribelsky

We derive in this short report the exact exponential decreasing tail of distribution for naturel normed sums of independent centered random variables (r.v.), applying the theory of Grand Lebesgue Spaces (GLS). We consider also some…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-10 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

To consider a high-dimensional random process, we propose a notion about stochastic tensor-valued random process (TRP). In this work, we first attempt to apply a generic chaining method to derive tail bounds for all p-th moments of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-02 Shih-Yu Chang

To recover the topology of a manifold in the presence of heavy tailed or exponentially decaying noise, one must understand the behavior of geometric complexes whose points lie in the tail of these noise distributions. This study advances…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Andrew M. Thomas , Takashi Owada

We consider the probability that a weighted sum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables $X_j$, $j = 1, . . ., n$, with stretched exponential tails is larger than its expectation and determine the rate of its decay, under suitable conditions on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-30 Nina Gantert , Kavita Ramanan , Franz Rembart

Recent theoretical studies have shown that heavy-tails can emerge in stochastic optimization due to `multiplicative noise', even under surprisingly simple settings, such as linear regression with Gaussian data. While these studies have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Mert Gurbuzbalaban , Yuanhan Hu , Umut Simsekli , Kun Yuan , Lingjiong Zhu

We construct examples of degree-two U- and V-statistics of $n$ i.i.d.~heavy-tailed random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^{d(n)}$, whose $\nu$-th moments exist for ${\nu > 2}$, and provide tight bounds on the error of approximating both statistics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-19 Kevin Han Huang , Peter Orbanz

In this paper, we establish the first large deviation bounds for the Airy point process. The proof is based on a novel approach which relies upon the approximation of the Airy point process using the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) up to an…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Chenyang Zhong

We consider the upper tail large deviations of subgraph counts for irregular graphs $\mathrm{H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$, the sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph on $n$ vertices with edge connectivity probability $p \in (0,1)$. For $n^{-1/\Delta}…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-10 Anirban Basak , Shaibal Karmakar

Consider the partition function of a directed polymer in an IID field. We assume that both tails of the negative and the positive part of the field are at least as light as exponential. It is a well-known fact that the free energy of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-04 Iddo Ben-Ari

Starting from one-point tail bounds, we establish an upper tail large deviation principle for the directed landscape at the metric level. Metrics of finite rate are in one-to-one correspondence with measures supported on a set of countably…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-27 Sayan Das , Duncan Dauvergne , Bálint Virág

Given a fixed graph H, what is the (exponentially small) probability that the number X_H of copies of H in the binomial random graph G_{n,p} is at least twice its mean? Studied intensively since the mid 1990s, this so-called infamous upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-09 Matas Šileikis , Lutz Warnke

We study the upper tail of the number of arithmetic progressions of a given length in a random subset of {1,...,n}, establishing exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the exponent. The proof also extends to…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Lutz Warnke