Related papers: Exponential tail bounds and Large Deviation Princi…
We consider the FCFS G/G/n queue in the Halfin-Whitt regime, in the presence of heavy-tailed distributions (i.e. infinite variance). We prove that under minimal assumptions, i.e. only that processing times have finite 1 + epsilon moment and…
Understanding the generalization abilities of modern machine learning algorithms has been a major research topic over the past decades. In recent years, the learning dynamics of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) have been related to…
We prove a large deviation principle for the sum of n independent heavy-tailed random variables, which are subject to a moving cut-off boundary at location n. Conditional on the sum being large at scale n, we show that a finite number of…
We investigate the upper tail distribution of the partition function of the directed polymer in a random environment on $\mathbb Z^d$ in the weak disorder phase. We show that the distribution of the infinite volume partition function…
We study large deviation upper bounds and mean-squared error (MSE) guarantees of a general framework of nonlinear stochastic gradient methods in the online setting, in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. Unlike existing works that rely on…
We study large deviation probabilities for a sum of dependent random variables from a heavy-tailed factor model, assuming that the components are regularly varying. We identify conditions where both the factor and the idiosyncratic terms…
We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…
We propose a model to create synthetic networks that may also serve as a narrative of a certain kind of infrastructure network evolution. It consists of an initialization phase with the network extending tree-like for minimum cost and a…
In this paper non-asymptotic exponential estimates are derived for tail of maximum martingale distribution by naturally norming in the spirit of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm. Key words: Martingales, exponential estimations,…
High-dimensional covariance estimation is notoriously sensitive to outliers. While statistically optimal estimators exist for general heavy-tailed distributions, they often rely on computationally expensive techniques like semidefinite…
An asymptotic model for extreme behavior of certain Markov chains is the "tail chain". Generally taking the form of a multiplicative random walk, it is useful in deriving extremal characteristics such as point process limits. We place this…
We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…
If the Euclidean norm is strongly concentrated with respect to a measure, the average distribution of an average marginal of this measure has Gaussian asymptotics that captures tail behaviour. If the marginals of the measure have…
We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…
The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…
The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail…
We study a stationary Gibbs particle process with deterministically bounded particles on Euclidean space defined in terms of an activity parameter and non-negative interaction potentials of finite range. Using disagreement percolation we…
In this paper we derive a Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for inhomogeneous U/V-statistics of a general order. Using this, we derive a LDP for two types of statistics: random multilinear forms, and number of monochromatic copies of a…
Proliferating cell populations at steady state growth often exhibit broad protein distributions with exponential tails. The sources of this variation and its universality are of much theoretical interest. Here we address the problem by…
We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…