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In this paper, we study lower tail probabilities of the height function $\mathfrak{h}(M,N)$ of the stochastic six-vertex model. We introduce a novel combinatorial approach to demonstrate that the tail probabilities…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Sayan Das , Yuchen Liao , Matteo Mucciconi

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Holger Drees , Miran Knezevic

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the joint upper and lower tail large deviations of the edge eigenvalues of an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$, in the regime of $p$ where the edge of the spectrum is no…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-02 Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Sohom Bhattacharya , Shirshendu Ganguly

For a fixed positive integer $\;k,\;$ limit laws of linearly normalized $\;k$-th upper order statistics are well known. In this article, a comprehensive study of tail behaviours of limit laws of normalized $k$-th upper order statistics…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-11 Sreenivasan Ravi , Mandagere Chandrashekhar Manohar

This paper presents a new, short proof of the computation of the upper tail large deviation rate function for the Brownian directed percolation model. Through a distributional equivalence between the last passage time in this model and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-08 Christopher Janjigian

Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Miles E. Lopes , Junwen Yao

We deduce the non-asymptotical (bilateral) estimates for moment inequalities for multiple sums of non-negative (more precisely, non-negative) independent random variables, on the other words, the well known U or V-statistics. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-24 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

The large deviations theory for heavy-tailed processes has seen significant advances in the recent past. In particular, Rhee et al. (2019) and Bazhba et al. (2020) established large deviation asymptotics at the sample-path level for L\'evy…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-29 Zhe Su , Chang-Han Rhee

We provide exact large-time equivalents of the density and upper tail distributions of the exponential functional of a subordinator in terms of its Laplace exponents. This improves previous results on the logarithmic asymptotic behaviour of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-17 Bénédicte Haas

The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Axel Bücher , Yeonjoon Choi , Katharina Effertz , Stanislav Volgushev

We derive a consistency result, in the $L_1$-sense, for incomplete U-statistics in the non-standard case where the kernel at hand has infinite second-order moments. Assuming that the kernel has finite moments of order $p(\geq 1)$, we obtain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-30 Alexander Dürre , Davy Paindaveine

We study the almost surely finite random variable $S$ defined by the distributional fixed-point equation \[ S \stackrel{d}{=} 1 + \max\{US', (1-U)S''\}, \qquad U \sim \mathrm{Unif}(0,1), \] where $S'$ and $S''$ are independent copies of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-16 Witold Płecha

In this paper, we provide novel tail bounds on the optimization error of Stochastic Mirror Descent for convex and Lipschitz objectives. Our analysis extends the existing tail bounds from the classical light-tailed Sub-Gaussian noise case to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Khaled Eldowa , Andrea Paudice

We investigate the high-dimensional properties of robust regression estimators in the presence of heavy-tailed contamination of both the covariates and response functions. In particular, we provide a sharp asymptotic characterisation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-03 Urte Adomaityte , Leonardo Defilippis , Bruno Loureiro , Gabriele Sicuro

We prove a large deviation principle for the largest eigenvalue of Wigner matrices without Gaussian tails, namely such that the distribution tails $\mathbb{P}( |X_{1,1}|>t)$ and $\mathbb{P}(|X_{1,2}|>t)$ behave like $e^{-bt^{\alpha}}$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Fanny Augeri

Power-law tail behavior and the summation scheme of Levy-stable distributions is the basis for their frequent use as models when fat tails above a Gaussian distribution are observed. However, recent studies suggest that financial asset…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-12-21 Rafal Weron

Large-deviations theory deals with tails of probability distributions and the rare events of random processes, for example spreading packets of particles. Mathematically, it concerns the exponential fall-of of the density of thin-tailed…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-07-04 Erez Aghion , David A. Kessler , Eli Barkai

Large deviation behavior of the largest eigenvalue $\lambda_1$ of Gaussian networks (Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ with i.i.d. Gaussian weights on the edges) has been the topic of considerable interest. Recently in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-17 Shirshendu Ganguly , Kyeongsik Nam

Starting with the large deviation principle (LDP) for the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi binomial random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ (edge indicators are i.i.d.), due to Chatterjee and Varadhan (2011), we derive the LDP for the uniform random graph…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-01 Amir Dembo , Eyal Lubetzky