Related papers: Exponential tail bounds and Large Deviation Princi…
We study moderate deviations in the exponential corner growth model, both in the bulk setting and the increment-stationary setting. The main results are sharp right-tail bounds on the last-passage time and the exit point of the…
We study the one-dimensional branching random walk in the case when the step size distribution has a stretched exponential tail, and, in particular, no finite exponential moments. The tail of the step size $X$ decays as $\mathbb{P}[X \geq…
We establish sharp large deviation asymptotics for the maximum order statistic of independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables, valid for all Borel subsets of the right tail. This result yields exact decay rates for…
Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…
For r \ge 2, let X be the number of r-armed stars K_{1,r} in the binomial random graph G_{n,p}. We study the upper tail \Pr(X \ge (1+\epsilon)\E X), and establish exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the…
The upper tail problem in a random graph asks to estimate the probability that the number of copies of some fixed subgraph in an Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph exceeds its expectation by some constant factor. There has been much exciting…
We provide the first tight bounds on the lower tail probability of the one point distribution of the KPZ equation with narrow wedge initial data. Our bounds hold for all sufficiently large times $T$ and demonstrates a crossover between…
We study mean change point testing problems for high-dimensional data, with exponentially- or polynomially-decaying tails. In each case, depending on the $\ell_0$-norm of the mean change vector, we separately consider dense and sparse…
Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…
In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…
We consider the upper and lower tail probabilities for the centered (by time$/24$) and scaled (according to KPZ time$^{1/3}$ scaling) one-point distribution of the Cole-Hopf solution of the KPZ equation when started with initial data drawn…
Incomplete U-statistics have been proposed to accelerate computation. They use only a subset of the subsamples required for kernel evaluations by complete U-statistics. This paper gives a finite sample bound in the style of Bernstein's…
We consider exponential large deviations estimates for unbounded observables on uniformly expanding dynamical systems. We show that uniform expansion does not imply the existence of a rate function for unbounded observables no matter the…
We prove precise deviations results in the sense of Cram\'er and Petrov for the upper tail of the distribution of the maximal value for a special class of determinantal point processes that play an important role in random matrix theory.…
We consider the supercritical bond percolation on $\mathbb Z^d$ and study the graph distance on the percolation graph called the chemical distance. It is well-known that there exists a deterministic constant $\mu(x)$ such that the chemical…
Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…
It has repeatedly been observed that loss minimization by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) leads to heavy-tailed distributions of neural network parameters. Here, we analyze a continuous diffusion approximation of SGD, called homogenized…
We study large deviation properties of probability distributions with either a compact support or a fat tail by comparing them with q-deformed exponential distributions. Our main result is a large deviation property for probability…
We introduce a new statistical tool (the TP-statistic and TE-statistic) designed specifically to compare the behavior of the sample tail of distributions with power-law and exponential tails as a function of the lower threshold u. One…
Recent studies have shown that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic optimization and that the heaviness of the tails have links to the generalization error. While these studies have shed light on interesting aspects of the generalization…