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This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of military spending news shocks on household income and wealth inequality for a large, panel of advanced and emerging economies. Confirming prior literature, we find that military spending…
How a shock to an individual sector propagates to the prices of other sectors and aggregates to GDP depends on how easily sectoral goods can be substituted in production, which is determined by the intermediate input substitution…
Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures…
This paper investigates how the cost of public debt shapes fiscal policy and its effect on the economy. Using U.S. historical data, I show that when servicing the debt creates a fiscal burden, the government responds to spending shocks by…
We estimate the short-run effects of weather-related disasters on local economic activity and cross-border spillovers that operate through economic linkages between U.S. states. To this end, we use emergency declarations triggered by…
Energy usage and GDP have been the subject of numerous studies over the past decades. It has been overlooked by previous studies that energy consumption correlates with economic growth in relation to GDP. This study uses threshold…
This paper argues that military buildups lead to a significant rise in greenhouse gas emissions and can disrupt the green transition. Identifying military spending shocks, I use local projections to show that a percentage point rise in the…
How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the…
UK GDP data is published with a lag time of more than a month and it is often adjusted for prior periods. This paper contemplates breaking away from the historic GDP measure to a more dynamic method using Bank Account, Cheque and Credit…
One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper…
This paper examines how natural gas supply shocks affect Italian firms' pricing decisions and inflation expectations using quarterly survey data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations (SIGE). We identify…
This paper presents evidence on the granular nature of firms' network of foreign suppliers and studies its implications for the impact of supplier shocks on domestic firms' performance. To demonstrate this, I use customs level information…
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an…
Consumers are sensitive to medical prices when consuming care, but delays in price information may distort moral hazard. We study how medical bills affect household spillover spending following utilization, leveraging variation in insurer…
The Great Recession highlighted the role of financial and uncertainty shocks as drivers of business cycle fluctuations. However, the fact that uncertainty shocks may affect economic activity by tightening financial conditions makes…
This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross…
When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information…
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays,…
How does import competition from China affect engagement on ESG initiatives by US corporates? On the one hand, reduced profitability due to import competition and lagging ESG performance of Chinese exporters can disincentivize US firms to…
The expression "wage transition" refers to the fact that over the past two or three decades in all developed economies wage increases have levelled off. There has been a widening divergence and decoupling between wages on the one hand and…