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This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic news announcements (MNA) on the stock market. Stocks exhibit a strong positive response to major MNA: 1 standard deviation of MNA surprise causes 11-25 bps higher returns. This response is…

It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard…

Studies of micro-level price datasets find more frequent small price increases than decreases, which can be explained by consumer inattention because time-constrained shoppers might ignore small price changes. Recent empirical studies of…

Using administrative data from Germany, this study provides first evidence on the wage effects of collective bargaining compliance laws. These laws require establishments receiving public contracts to pay wages set by a representative…

The emergence of the modern gig economy introduces a new set of employment considerations for firms and laborers that include various trade-offs. With a game-theoretical approach, we examine the influences of technology, policy and markets…

Invoice factoring is an invoice financing process where business organizations sell their invoices to banks or financial institutions at a discount to gain faster access to the invoice amount. In global trade, ocean and land carriers…

We study the interaction between returns and order flow imbalances in the S&P 500 E-mini futures market using a structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity. The model is estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute…

Using a rolling windows analysis of filtered and aligned stock index returns from 40 countries during the period 2006-2014, we construct Granger causality networks and investigate the ensuing structure of the relationships by studying…

The aim of this study is to contribute to the theory of exogenous economic shocks and their equivalents in an attempt to explain business cycle fluctuations, which still do not have a clear explanation. To this end the author has developed…

Academics increasingly acknowledge the predictive power of social media for a wide variety of events and, more specifically, for financial markets. Anecdotal and empirical findings show that cryptocurrencies are among the financial assets…

The importance of trade to an economy needs no emphasis. You sell products or services that you are competitive at and buy those where you are not. Experience of countries such as South Korea and China demonstrate that resources required…

Many empirical studies have shown that government quality is a key determinant of vulnerability to natural disasters. Protection against natural disasters can be a public good -- flood protection, for example -- or a natural monopoly --…

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of U.S. federal personal income and corporate income tax cuts on a wide array of economic policy variables in a data-rich environment. Using a panel of U.S. macroeconomic data set, made up…

No matter its source, financial- or policy-related, uncertainty can feed onto itself, inflicting the real economic sector, altering expectations and behaviours, and leading to identification challenges in empirical applications. The strong…

We extend the existing growth-at-risk (GaR) literature by examining a long time period of 130 years in a time-varying parameter regression model. We identify several important insights for policymakers. First, both the level as well as the…

Recent events such as the global financial crisis have renewed the interest in the topic of economic networks. One of the main channels of shock propagation among countries is the International Trade Network (ITN). Two important models for…

We study the drivers of the Gilchrist and Zakraj\v{s}ek (2012) excess bond premium (EBP) through the lens of the news. The monthly attention the news pays to 180 topics (Bybee et al., 2024) captures up to 80% of the variation in the EBP,…

GDP of China is about 11 trillion dollars and GDP of the United States is about 18 trillion dollars. Suppose that we know for the coming years, economy of the US will experience a real growth rate equal to \%3 and economy of China will…

Political messages increasingly bundle economic policy arguments with moral social policy stances. Using survey experiments with roughly 6,500 U.S. adults, I show that such bundling sharply weakens economic persuasion among respondents who…

The economy in the modern world is greatly influenced by artificial intelligence (AI). This paper aims to determine the impact of AI quantitative relationships on the country's economic parameters, including GDP per Capita. Historical data…