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Do governments adjust budgetary policy to rising public debt, precluding fiscal unsustainability? Using budget data for 52 industrial and emerging economies since 1990, we apply panel methods accounting for cross-sectional dependence and…
Extreme political shocks may reshape economies not only through contemporaneous disruption but by altering beliefs about the distribution of future states. We study how such belief ruptures affect the cost of capital, expectations, and…
We provide quantitative predictions of first order supply and demand shocks for the U.S. economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyze the supply shock, we classify…
GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…
This study re-examines the impact of natural disasters on economic growth in the perspective of developed and developing countries. Based on panel data consisting of developing and developed countries over the period 1990-2019 and using…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm…
Industries can enter one country first, and then enter its neighbors' markets. Firms in the industry can expand trade network through the export behavior of other firms in the industry. If a firm is dependent on a few foreign markets, the…
Recent years have seen many attempts to combine expenditure-side estimates of U.S. real output (GDE) growth with income-side estimates (GDI) to improve estimates of real GDP growth. We show how to incorporate information from multiple…
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…
The dependence of world GDP on current energy consumption and total energy produced over the previous period and materialized in the form of production infrastructure is studied. The dependence describes empirical data with high accuracy…
Energy efficiency gains in production and consumption are undisputed economic and environmental goals. However, potential energy savings derived from efficiency innovations may have short-lasting effects due to increased demand for more…
The objective of this study is to analyze the response of firm value, represented by the Tobin's Q (Q) for a group of twelve U.S. durable goods producers to uncertainties in the US Economy. The results, based on an estimated panel quantile…
This paper investigates how geopolitical conflict reshapes trade patterns, focusing on the economic consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war on European and global trade flows. War is conceptualized as a shock that increases bilateral trade…
For centuries, national economies created wealth by engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also create systemic risk: economic shocks,…
We analyze a two-period, two-market chain-store game in which an incumbent's conduct in one market is only sometimes seen in the other. This partial observability generates reputational spillovers across markets. We characterize equilibrium…
The aim here is to address the origins of sustainability for the real growth rate in the United States. For over a century of observations on the real GDP per capita of the United States a sustainable two percent growth rate has been…
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…
Can uncertainty about credit availability trigger a slowdown in real activity? This question is answered by using a novel method to identify shocks to uncertainty in access to credit. Time-variation in uncertainty about credit availability…
We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to…
The enterprise value (EV) is a crucial metric in company valuation as it encompasses not only equity but also assets and liabilities, offering a comprehensive measure of total value, especially for companies with diverse capital structures.…