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Since 2018, there has been a consistent decline in the distance traveled by U.S. manufacturing imports, reaching a level not observed since 2008. This trend is the result of the substitution away from imports from China and towards imports…
The GDP growth of national economies is modelled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK and India, all of whose…
Physical risks, such as droughts, floods, rising temperatures, earthquakes, infrastructure failures, and geopolitical conflicts, can ripple through global supply chains, raising costs, and constraining production across industries.…
This study investigates the impact of a fiscal policy spending shock on the economy of the Visegrad 4 countries. The impact is estimated with an SVAR model, and the calculations are based on 84 quarterly observations (1999Q1-2019Q4). The…
Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On…
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…
We show that the amount of foreign exchange reserves (FER) in the world in a given currency is highly correlated with the GDP and military spending of that country for a set of western economies during the last 20 years. Taking into account…
This paper synthesizes evidence on climate change impacts specific to U.S. populations. We develop an apples-to-apples comparison of econometric studies that empirically estimate the relationship between climate change and gross domestic…
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of news about future technological advancements in the green sector. Utilizing the economic value of green patents granted to publicly listed companies in the U.S., we identify green technology…
Data breach disclosure (DBD) is presumed to improve firms' cybersecurity practices by inducing fear of subsequent revenue loss. This revenue loss, the theory goes, will occur if customers punish an offending firm by refusing to buy from…
We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…
We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271--2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output…
A transformation network describes how one set of resources can be transformed into another via technological processes. Transformation networks in economics are useful because they can highlight areas for future innovations, both in terms…
Corporate earnings announcements unpack large bundles of public information that should, in efficient markets, trigger jumps in stock prices. Testing this implication is difficult in practice, as it requires noisy high-frequency data from…
The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties of the data in ways that make many pre-covid forecasting models inadequate. It also creates a new problem for estimation of…
Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear…
We study the effects of financial shocks on the United States economy by using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that exploits the non-normalities in the data. We use this method to uniquely identify the model and…
The common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, while small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while the liquidity…
Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show…
Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) have been widely used to resolve excessive demand-capacity imbalances at arrival airports by shifting foreseen airborne delay to pre-departure ground delay. While offering clear safety and efficiency benefits,…