Related papers: Monte-Carlo Estimation of CoVaR
We study the design of portfolios under a minimum risk criterion. The performance of the optimized portfolio relies on the accuracy of the estimated covariance matrix of the portfolio asset returns. For large portfolios, the number of…
Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…
The popularity of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk functional from finance, has been growing in the control systems community due to its intuitive interpretation and axiomatic foundation. We consider a nonstandard optimal control…
We consider an online stochastic game with risk-averse agents whose goal is to learn optimal decisions that minimize the risk of incurring significantly high costs. Specifically, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure…
We study a risk-constrained version of the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, where the risk measure considered is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We propose two algorithms that obtain a locally risk-optimal policy by employing four…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) quantifies systemic financial risk by measuring the loss quantile of one asset, conditional on another asset experiencing distress. We develop a Transformer-based methodology that integrates financial news…
In this paper, we study large losses arising from defaults of a credit portfolio. We assume that the portfolio dependence structure is modelled by the Archimedean copula family as opposed to the widely used Gaussian copula. The resulting…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) produces a correlated sample for estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop so that we have good estimates of the desired quantities?…
Multivariate shortfall risk measures provide a principled framework for quantifying systemic risk and determining capital allocations prior to aggregation in interconnected financial systems. Despite their well established theoretical…
In several real-world applications involving decision making under uncertainty, the traditional expected value objective may not be suitable, as it may be necessary to control losses in the case of a rare but extreme event. Conditional…
This paper studies a mean-risk portfolio choice problem for log-returns in a continuous-time, complete market. This is a growth-optimal problem with risk control. The risk of log-returns is measured by weighted Value-at-Risk (WVaR), which…
In this note we study the numerical stability problem that may take place when calculating the cumulative distribution function of the {\it Hypoexponential} random variable. This computation is extensively used during the execution of Monte…
We present a quantum algorithm that analyzes risk more efficiently than Monte Carlo simulations traditionally used on classical computers. We employ quantum amplitude estimation to evaluate risk measures such as Value at Risk and…
Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…
In the present paper we consider the initial data, external force, viscosity coefficients, and heat conductivity coefficient as random data for the compressible Navier--Stokes--Fourier system. The Monte Carlo method, which is frequently…
This paper addresses the key challenge of estimating the asymptotic covariance associated with the Markov chain central limit theorem, which is essential for visualizing and terminating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. We focus…
A novel linear integration rule called $\textit{control neighbors}$ is proposed in which nearest neighbor estimates act as control variates to speed up the convergence rate of the Monte Carlo procedure on metric spaces. The main result is…
Let $\rho$ be a general law--invariant convex risk measure, for instance the average value at risk, and let $X$ be a financial loss, that is, a real random variable. In practice, either the true distribution $\mu$ of $X$ is unknown, or the…