Related papers: Monte-Carlo Estimation of CoVaR
Wrong-Way Risk (WWR) is an important component in Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA) modelling. Yet, the standard assumption is independence between market risks and the counterparty defaults and funding costs. This typical industrial…
We introduce a new numerical approximation method for functionals of factor credit portfolio models based on the theory of mod-$\phi$ convergence and mod-$\phi$ approximation schemes. The method can be understood as providing correction…
Copula-based Conditional Value at Risk (CCVaR) is defined as an alternative version of the classical Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for multivariate random vectors intended to be real-valued. We aim to generalize CCVaR to several…
Through the Bayesian lens of data assimilation, uncertainty on model parameters is traditionally quantified through the posterior covariance matrix. However, in modern settings involving high-dimensional and computationally expensive…
Monte Carlo integration is typically interpreted as an estimator of the expected value using stochastic samples. There exists an alternative interpretation in calculus where Monte Carlo integration can be seen as estimating a…
This paper examines the usefulness of high frequency data in estimating the covariance matrix for portfolio choice when the portfolio size is large. A computationally convenient nonlinear shrinkage estimator for the integrated covariance…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…
We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…
A new portmanteau diagnostic test for vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that is based on the determinant of the standardized multivariate residual autocorrelations is derived. The new test statistic may be considered an…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
The contour maps of the error of historical resp. parametric estimates for large random portfolios optimized under the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) are constructed. Similar maps for the sensitivity of the portfolio weights to small…
The Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) are the two most popular risk measures in banking and insurance regulation. To bridge between the two regulatory risk measures, the Probability Equivalent Level of VaR-ES (PELVE) was…
In this paper we introduce a novel approach to risk estimation based on nonlinear factor models - the "StressVaR" (SVaR). Developed to evaluate the risk of hedge funds, the SVaR appears to be applicable to a wide range of investments. Its…
We introduce a new approach for prudent risk evaluation based on stochastic dominance, which will be called the model aggregation (MA) approach. In contrast to the classic worst-case risk (WR) approach, the MA approach produces not only a…
We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…
We study risk-sensitive planning under partial observability using the dynamic risk measure Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (ICVaR). A policy evaluation algorithm for ICVaR is developed with finite-time performance guarantees that do not…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad…
In this paper, a Monte Carlo based approach for the quantification of the importance of the scattering input parameters with respect to the failure probability is presented. Using the basic idea of the alpha-factors of the First Order…
In quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, energy estimators are calculated as the statistical average of the Markov chain sampling of energy estimator along with an associated statistical error. This error estimation is not straightforward and…
The problem of data uncertainty has motivated the incorporation of robust optimization in various arenas, beyond the Markowitz portfolio optimization. This work presents the extension of the robust optimization framework for the…