Related papers: Monte-Carlo Estimation of CoVaR
We present a framework for constructing multivariate risk measures that is inspired from univariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk measures. We show that this new class of risk measures verifies the desirable properties such as…
The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a useful risk measure in fields such as machine learning, finance, insurance, energy, etc. When measuring very extreme risk, the commonly used CVaR estimation method of sample averaging does not work…
This paper proposes a safety analysis method that facilitates a tunable balance between the worst-case and risk-neutral perspectives. First, we define a risk-sensitive safe set to specify the degree of safety attained by a stochastic…
Monte Carlo methods are used to approximate the means, $\mu$, of random variables $Y$, whose distributions are not known explicitly. The key idea is that the average of a random sample, $Y_1, ..., Y_n$, tends to $\mu$ as $n$ tends to…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…
The optimization of neural wave functions in variational Monte Carlo crucially relies on a robust convergence criterion. While the energy variance is theoretically a definitive measure, its practical application as a primary convergence…
We propose and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization of convex losses with conditional value at risk (CVaR) and $\chi^2$ divergence uncertainty sets. We prove that our algorithms require a number of gradient…
AIMS. The maximum-likelihood method is the standard approach to obtain model fits to observational data and the corresponding confidence regions. We investigate possible sources of bias in the log-likelihood function and its subsequent…
We investigate the portfolio selection problem against the systemic risk which is measured by CoVaR. We first demonstrate that the systemic risk of pure stock portfolios is essentially uncontrollable due to the contagion effect and the…
This paper studies mean-risk portfolio optimization models using the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a risk measure. We also employ a cardinality constraint for limiting the number of invested assets. Solving such a…
Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…
We consider estimation of the covariance matrix of a multivariate random vector under the constraint that certain covariances are zero. We first present an algorithm, which we call Iterative Conditional Fitting, for computing the maximum…
In this paper, we consider a Monte Carlo simulation method (MinMC) that approximates prices and risk measures for a range $\Gamma$ of model parameters at once. The simulation method that we study has recently gained popularity [HS20, FPP22,…
In this paper, we explore the portfolio allocation problem involving an uncertain covariance matrix. We calculate the expected value of the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, marginalized over a distribution of…
In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…
The efficiency of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm might be measured by the cost of generating one independent sample, or equivalently, the total cost divided by the effective sample size, defined in terms of the integrated…
Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…
Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an institutional measure of risk favored by financial regulators. VaR may be interpreted as a quantile of future portfolio values conditional on the information available, where the most common quantile used is 95%.…