English

Efficient calculation of risk measures by importance sampling -- the heavy tailed case

Probability 2009-09-21 v1

Abstract

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms, designed for efficient tail probability estimation, can significantly improve Monte Carlo estimators of tail-based risk measures. In the heavy-tailed setting, when the random variable of interest has a regularly varying distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic relative error of importance sampling estimators of risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall, to be small. The results are illustrated by some numerical examples.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0909.3335,
  title  = {Efficient calculation of risk measures by importance sampling -- the heavy tailed case},
  author = {Henrik Hult and Jens Svensson},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0909.3335},
  year   = {2009}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-21T13:47:46.276Z