Related papers: An Integer GARCH model for a Poisson process with …

This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…

We propose a scalable framework for inference in an inhomogeneous Poisson process modeled by a continuous sigmoidal Cox process that assumes the corresponding intensity function is given by a Gaussian process (GP) prior transformed with a…

A Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model accounting for discreteness and autocorrelation of count time series data is typically estimated in the state-space modelling framework through extended Kalman filter. However, because of the complex…

A popular and flexible time series model for counts is the generalized integer autoregressive process of order $p$, GINAR($p$). These Markov processes are defined using thinning operators evaluated on past values of the process along with a…

In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…

A family of continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic processes, generalizing the $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ process of Kl\"{u}ppelberg, Lindner and Maller [J. Appl. Probab. 41 (2004) 601--622], is…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

This paper proposes a piecewise autoregression for general integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter which is piecewise constant over time. We derive an inference procedure based on a penalized…

Count data with excessive zeros are often encountered when modelling infectious disease occurrence. The degree of zero inflation can vary over time due to non-epidemic periods as well as by age group or region. The existing endemic-epidemic…

Zero-inflated datasets, which have an excess of zero outputs, are commonly encountered in problems such as climate or rare event modelling. Conventional machine learning approaches tend to overestimate the non-zeros leading to poor…

This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-It\^o model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility…

Christoffersen, Jacobs, Ornthanalai, and Wang (2008) (CJOW) proposed an improved Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for valuing European options, where the return volatility is comprised of two distinct…

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

Gaussian process regression can flexibly represent the posterior distribution of an interest parameter given sufficient information on the likelihood. However, in some cases, we have little knowledge regarding the probability model. For…

This paper develops the limit theory of the GARCH(1,1) process that moderately deviates from IGARCH process towards both stationary and explosive regimes. The GARCH(1,1) process is defined by equations $u_t = \sigma_t \varepsilon_t$,…

Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series…

We propose a nonparametric factorization approach for sparsely observed tensors. The sparsity does not mean zero-valued entries are massive or dominated. Rather, it implies the observed entries are very few, and even fewer with the growth…

We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the…

The disaggregated time-series for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) often exhibits exact zero price changes, stemming from structural features of the data collection process. However, the currently prominent stochastic volatility model of…

In this paper, we analyze the time-series of minute price returns on the Bitcoin market through the statistical models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family. Several mathematical models have been…