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We propose a new framework for the modelling of count data exhibiting zero inflation (ZI). The main part of this framework includes a new and more general parameterisation for ZI models which naturally includes both over- and…
There is a serious and long-standing restriction in the literature on heavy-tailed phenomena in that moment conditions, which are unrealistic, are almost always assumed in modelling such phenomena. Further, the issue of stability is often…
This paper considers a semiparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (S-GARCH) model. For this model, we first estimate the time-varying long run component for unconditional variance by the kernel estimator, and…
The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…
We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…
The Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models has been typically addressed through Monte Carlo sampling. Variational Inference is gaining popularity and attention as a robust approach for Bayesian inference in complex machine learning…
Many clinical endpoint measures, such as the number of standard drinks consumed per week or the number of days that patients stayed in the hospital, are count data with excessive zeros. However, the zero-inflated nature of such outcomes is…
We develop a uniform test for detecting and dating explosive behavior of a strictly stationary GARCH$(r,s)$ (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) process. Namely, we test the null hypothesis of a globally stable GARCH…
This paper describes a compound Poisson-based random effects structure for modeling zero-inflated data. Data with large proportion of zeros are found in many fields of applied statistics, for example in ecology when trying to model and…
Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…
This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…
We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…
Bayesian inference for fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is described. A simulation study is presented to access the…
Recurrent event data are common in clinical studies when participants are followed longitudinally, and are often subject to a terminal event. With the increasing popularity of large pragmatic trials with a heterogeneous source population,…
A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…
We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…
The AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and its generalized version (GARCH) family of models have grown to encompass a wide range of specifications, each of them is designed to enhance the ability of the model to capture…
Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
A frequent challenge encountered with compositional ecological data is how to interpret and model data with a high proportion of zeros and $N$'s. Such data frequently occur in ecological applications where counts of species are collected…