Related papers: An Integer GARCH model for a Poisson process with …
We propose a unified probabilistic framework for sparse count tensors with excess zeros, motivated by single-cell Hi-C data. The observed data are naturally represented as a three-way tensor indexed by genomic loci pairs and cells,…
In this paper, we develop Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods for inference in asymmetric GARCH models under different distributions for the error term. We implemented Zero-variance and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo schemes for parameter…
We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…
We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…
We propose Neural GARCH, a class of methods to model conditional heteroskedasticity in financial time series. Neural GARCH is a neural network adaptation of the GARCH 1,1 model in the univariate case, and the diagonal BEKK 1,1 model in the…
Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other applications in finance. It is well-known that financial time series display conditional heteroscedasticity. Among the large number of…
In order to calculate the unobserved volatility in conditional heteroscedastic time series models, the natural recursive approximation is very often used. Following \cite{StraumannMikosch2006}, we will call the model \emph{invertible} if…
This study was conducted to find an appropriate statistical model to forecast the volatilities of PSEi using the model Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Using the R software, the log returns of PSEi is…
We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…
This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…
A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…
The risk-neutral option pricing method under GARCH intensity model is examined. The GARCH intensity model incorporates the characteristics of financial return series such as volatility clustering, leverage effect and conditional asymmetry.…
We propose a new methodology to detect zero-inflation and overdispersion based on the comparison of the expected sample extremes among convexly ordered distributions. The method is very flexible and includes tests for the proportion of…
Probabilistic approaches for handling count-valued time sequences have attracted amounts of research attentions because their ability to infer explainable latent structures and to estimate uncertainties, and thus are especially suitable for…
There are numerous applications which involve modeling multi-dimensional count data, notably in actuarial science and risk management. When such data exhibit an excess of zeros, common count models are no longer suitable. With multivariate…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
This research deals with the estimation and imputation of missing data in longitudinal models with a Poisson response variable inflated with zeros. A methodology is proposed that is based on the use of maximum likelihood, assuming that data…
In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Realized Hyperbolic GARCH (A-Realized HYGARCH) process to model the long memory of high-frequency time series with possible structural breaks. The structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept…
This paper presents a framework for binary autoregressive time series in which each observation is a Bernoulli variable whose success probability evolves with past outcomes and probabilities, in the spirit of GARCH-type dynamics,…
We develop an efficient posterior sampling scheme for the Poisson INGARCH models. The proposed method is based on the approximation of the posterior density that exploits the Poisson limit of the negative binomial distribution. It allows us…