Related papers: An Integer GARCH model for a Poisson process with …
This paper proposes a spatial threshold GARCH-type model for dynamic spatio-temporal integer-valued data with network structure. The proposed model can simplify the parameterization by using network structure in data, and can capture the…
INteger Auto-Regressive (INAR) processes are usually defined by specifying the innovations and the operator, which often leads to difficulties in deriving marginal properties of the process. In many practical situations, a major modeling…
This paper introduces a new stochastic process with values in the set Z of integers with sign. The increments of process are Poisson differences and the dynamics has an autoregressive structure. We study the properties of the process and…
We propose a continuous-time Markov-switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (COMS-GARCH) process for handling irregularly spaced time series (TS) with multiple volatilities states. We employ a Gibbs sampler in…
Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…
This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…
The discrete-time GARCH methodology which has had such a profound influence on the modelling of heteroscedasticity in time series is intuitively well motivated in capturing many `stylized facts' concerning financial series, and is now…
This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, termed GARCH-FIS, for recursive rolling multi-step forecasting of financial time series. It integrates a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity…
Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the…
We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the variance of the observations of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive way of dealing with heteroskedastic data…
This paper proposes a method for analyzing count time series with inflation or deflation of zeros. In particular, zero-modified Poisson and zero-modified negative binomial series with intensities generated by non-negative Markov sequences…
Zero inflation is a common nuisance while monitoring disease progression over time. This article proposes a new observation driven model for zero inflated and over-dispersed count time series. The counts given the past history of the…
This paper introduces a novel Ito diffusion process to model high-frequency financial data, which can accommodate low-frequency volatility dynamics by embedding the discrete-time non-linear exponential GARCH structure with log-integrated…
We derive mixing properties for a broad class of Poisson count time series satisfying a certain contraction condition. Using specific coupling techniques, we prove absolute regularity at a geometric rate not only for stationary…
In an asset return series there is a conditional asymmetric dependence between current return and past volatility depending on the current return's sign. To take into account the conditional asymmetry, we introduce new models for asset…
In microbiome studies, it is of interest to use a sample from a population of microbes, such as the gut microbiota community, to estimate the population proportion of these taxa. However, due to biases introduced in sampling and…
This paper introduces a Nearly Unstable INteger-valued AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (NU-INARCH) process for dealing with count time series data. It is proved that a proper normalization of the NU-INARCH process endowed with…
This paper deals with the problem of model selection for a general class of integer-valued time series. We propose a penalized criterion based on the Poisson quasi-likelihood of the model. Under certain regularity conditions, the…
We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…
In this article, we propose a novel model for time series of counts called the hysteretic Poisson autoregressive (HPART) model with thresholds by extending the linear Poisson autoregressive model into a nonlinear model. Unlike other…