Related papers: An Integer GARCH model for a Poisson process with …
In this paper the class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models is generalized to the nonstationary class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models with time-varying coefficients. For fixed time points, a stationary approximation is given leading to the notation ``locally…
In this paper we propose a new time-varying econometric model, called Time-Varying Poisson AutoRegressive with eXogenous covariates (TV-PARX), suited to model and forecast time series of counts. {We show that the score-driven framework is…
We use the GARCH model with a fat-tailed error distribution described by a rational function and apply it for the stock price data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To determine the model parameters we perform the Bayesian inference to the…
This paper proposes a new generalized linear model with the fractional binomial distribution. Zero-inflated Poisson/negative binomial distributions are used for count data with many zeros. To analyze the association of such a count variable…
We propose methodology for statistical inference for low-dimensional parameters of sparse precision matrices in a high-dimensional setting. Our method leads to a non-sparse estimator of the precision matrix whose entries have a Gaussian…
Analyzing high-dimensional count data is a challenge and statistical model-based approaches provide an adequate and efficient framework that preserves explainability. The (multivariate) Poisson-Log-Normal (PLN) model is one such model: it…
A new forecasting method based on the concept of the profile predictive the likelihood function is proposed for discrete-valued processes. In particular, generalized autoregressive and moving average (GARMA) models for Poisson distributed…
This paper presents a novel approach for approximate integration over the uncertainty of noise and signal variances in Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our efficient and straightforward approach can also be applied to integration over…
We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…
We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…
Gaussian processes are a key component of many flexible statistical and machine learning models. However, they exhibit cubic computational complexity and high memory constraints due to the need of inverting and storing a full covariance…
Maximizing the likelihood has been widely used for estimating the unknown covariance parameters of spatial Gaussian processes. However, evaluating and optimizing the likelihood function can be computationally intractable, particularly for…
Marginalized models are in great demand by most researchers in the life sciences particularly in clinical trials, epidemiology, health-economics, surveys and many others since they allow generalization of inference to the entire population…
The Poisson log-normal model is a latent variable model that provides a generic framework for the analysis of multivariate count data. Inferring its parameters can be a daunting task since the conditional distribution of the latent…
Spatially correlated data with an excess of zeros, usually referred to as zero-inflated spatial data, arise in many disciplines. Examples include count data, for instance, abundance (or lack thereof) of animal species and disease counts, as…
The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…
This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice,…
The aim of this paper is to provide a new estimator of parameters for LARCH$(\infty)$ processes, and thus also for LARCH$(p)$ or GLARCH$(p,q)$ processes. This estimator results from minimising a contrast leading to a least squares estimator…