Time-Varying Poisson Autoregression
Abstract
In this paper we propose a new time-varying econometric model, called Time-Varying Poisson AutoRegressive with eXogenous covariates (TV-PARX), suited to model and forecast time series of counts. {We show that the score-driven framework is particularly suitable to recover the evolution of time-varying parameters and provides the required flexibility to model and forecast time series of counts characterized by convoluted nonlinear dynamics and structural breaks.} We study the asymptotic properties of the TV-PARX model and prove that, under mild conditions, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) yields strongly consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimates. Finite-sample performance and forecasting accuracy are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical usefulness of the time-varying specification of the proposed TV-PARX model is shown by analyzing the number of new daily COVID-19 infections in Italy and the number of corporate defaults in the US.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2207.11003,
title = {Time-Varying Poisson Autoregression},
author = {Giovanni Angelini and Giuseppe Cavaliere and Enzo D'Innocenzo and Luca De Angelis},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2207.11003},
year = {2022}
}