Related papers: PaleoJump: A database for abrupt transitions in pa…
We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…
Transiting exoplanets provide access to data to study the mass-radius relation and internal structure of extrasolar planets. Long-period transiting planets allow insight into planetary environments similar to the Solar System where, in…
Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…
We propose a framework to study tipping points in reaction-diffusion equations (RDEs) in one spatial dimension, where the reaction term decays in space (asymptotically homogeneous) and varies linearly with time (nonautonomous) due to an…
Exoplanet surveys have revealed a wide diversity of planetary systems, requiring integrated models of planet formation to explain their origin. Planet population synthesis (PPS) modelling is a key tool for linking theory with the…
Aims. We track the time evolution of planet traps and snowlines in a viscously evolving protoplanetary disk using an opacity table that accounts for the composition of the dust material. Methods. We coupled a dynamical and thermodynamical…
Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice-sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to…
We analyze the ERA5 reanalysis 2-meter temperature time series on all land grid points using change point analysis. We fit two linear slopes to the data with the constraint that they merge at the point in time where the slope changes. We…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
Understanding the interactions between ice sheets and global climate forcings over geological timescales is essential for projecting their future. Previous studies have highlighted the role of ice dynamics and climate interactions in…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…
This paper discusses advance of the research on Speleothem Paleoluminescence Records of Environmental Changes after it have been first introduced by the author 20 years ago. It is demonstrated that most of the progress in this field was…
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…
Vital parts of the climate system, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are at risk even within the aspired aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 -- 2{\deg}C. These so-called natural tipping elements are…
Predicting and characterizing phase transitions is crucial for understanding generic physical phenomena such as crystallization, protein folding and others. However, directly observing phase transitions is not always easy, and often one has…
Identifying change points (CPs) in a time series is crucial to guide better decision making across various fields like finance and healthcare and facilitating timely responses to potential risks or opportunities. Existing Change Point…
We introduce a framework for analyzing topological tipping in time-evolutionary point clouds by extending the recently proposed Topological Optimal Transport (TpOT) distance. While TpOT unifies geometric, homological, and higher-order…
Transiting exoplanets in multi-planet systems have non-Keplerian orbits which can cause the times and durations of transits to vary. The theory and observations of transit timing variations (TTV) and transit duration variations (TDV) are…
Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…