Related papers: PaleoJump: A database for abrupt transitions in pa…

Irregular sampling is a common problem in palaeoclimate studies. We propose a method that provides regularly sampled time series and at the same time a difference filtering of the data. The differences between successive time instances are…

Reconstructions of the paleoclimate indicate that ancient climatic fluctuations on Earth are often correlated with variations in its orbital elements. However, the chaos inherent in the solar system's orbital evolution prevents numerical…

We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces…

Sudden transitions in the state of a system are often undesirable in natural and human-made systems. Such transitions under fast variation of system parameters are called rate-induced tipping. We experimentally demonstrate rate-induced…

This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…

Comparing paleoclimate time series is complicated by a variety of typical features, including irregular sampling, age model uncertainty (e.g., errors due to interpolation between radiocarbon sampling points) and time uncertainty…

In this paper, we address the challenge of clustering mixed-type data with temporal evolution by introducing the statistical jump model for mixed-type data. This novel framework incorporates regime persistence, enhancing interpretability…

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such…

Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…

We consider the problem of detecting jumps in an otherwise smoothly evolving trend whilst the covariance and higher-order structures of the system can experience both smooth and abrupt changes over time. The number of jump points is allowed…

Critical transitions describe sudden changes in the state of an ecosystem. In classical bifurcation theory, such transitions occur when the value of a parameter exceeds a threshold (``bifurcation") value. More recently, critical transitions…

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…

Phenomenological (P-type) bifurcations are qualitative changes in stochastic dynamical systems whereby the stationary probability density function (PDF) changes its topology. The current state of the art for detecting these bifurcations…

The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…

Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…

Dynamical systems across the sciences, from electrical circuits to ecological networks, undergo qualitative and often catastrophic changes in behavior, called bifurcations, when their underlying parameters cross a threshold. Existing…

A major goal in paleoclimate science is to reconstruct historical climates using proxies for climate variables such as those observed in sediment cores, and in the process learn about climate dynamics. This is hampered by uncertainties in…