Related papers: PaleoJump: A database for abrupt transitions in pa…

Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…

We present here two promising techniques for the application of the complex network approach to continuous spatio-temporal systems that have been developed in the last decade and show large potential for future application and development…

Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system,…

This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this…

Change detection, a prominent research area in remote sensing, is pivotal in observing and analyzing surface transformations. Despite significant advancements achieved through deep learning-based methods, executing high-precision change…

Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…

Thermal comfort is essential for well-being in urban spaces, especially as cities face increasing heat from urbanization and climate change. Existing thermal comfort models usually overlook temporal dynamics alongside spatial dependencies.…

Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) is a rapidly growing field, which studies methods for learning underlying topological structures present in complex data representations. TDA methods have found recent success in extracting useful geometric…

We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or…

Climate change and other anthropogenic pressures are likely to induce tipping points in marine ecosystems, potentially leading to declines in primary productivity and fisheries. Despite increasing attention to nature-related financial risks…

The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic 'tipping points' and large economic shocks, frequently called 'catastrophes'. The use of the phrase 'tipping points' in this context can be misleading. In…

Changepoint analysis deals with unsupervised detection and/or estimation of time-points in time-series data, when the distribution generating the data changes. In this article, we consider \emph{offline} changepoint detection in the context…

Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…

Spatiotemporal dynamics models are fundamental for various domains, from heat propagation in materials to oceanic and atmospheric flows. However, currently available neural network-based spatiotemporal modeling approaches fall short when…

The early detection of tipping points, which describe a rapid departure from a stable state, is an important theoretical and practical challenge. Tipping points are most commonly associated with the disappearance of steady-state or periodic…

We describe a method for reconstructing spatially explicit maps of seasonal palaeoclimate variables from site-based reconstructions. Using a 3D-Variational technique, the method finds the best statistically unbiased, and spatially…

We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…

Tree-grass coexistence is a defining feature of savanna ecosystems, which play an important role in supporting biodiversity and human populations worldwide. While recent advances have clarified many of the underlying processes, how these…

Planet traps are necessary to prevent forming planets from falling onto their host star by type I migration. Surface mass density and temperature gradient irregularities favor the apparition of traps and deserts. Such features are found at…