Related papers: PaleoJump: A database for abrupt transitions in pa…
Understanding the future climate is crucial for informed policy decisions on climate change prevention and mitigation. Earth system models play an important role in predicting future climate, requiring accurate representation of complex…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
Collecting time series data spatially distributed in many locations is often important for analyzing climate change and its impacts on ecosystems. However, comprehensive spatial data collection is not always feasible, requiring us to…
Plate tectonics is a geophysical process currently unique to Earth, has an important role in regulating the Earth's climate, and may be better understood by identifying rocky planets outside our solar system with tectonic activity. The key…
Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large…
We investigate solutions to the TAP equation, a phenomenological implementation of the Theory of the Adjacent Possible. Several implementations of TAP are studied, with potential applications in a range of topics including economics, social…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
The Transit Timing Variation (TTV) method relies on monitoring changes in timing of transits of known exoplanets. Non-transiting planets in the system can be inferred from TTVs by their gravitational interaction with the transiting planet.…
Dynamic graphs serve as a generic abstraction and description of the evolutionary behaviors of various complex systems (e.g., social networks and communication networks). Temporal link prediction (TLP) is a classic yet challenging inference…
The climate is a complex non-equilibrium dynamical system that relaxes toward a steady state under the continuous input of solar radiation and dissipative mechanisms. The steady state is not necessarily unique. A useful tool to describe the…
Since 2008 we have run an observational program to accurately measure the characteristics of known exoplanet systems hosting close-in transiting giant planets, i.e. hot Jupiters. Our study is based on high-quality photometric follow-up…
Polar ice cores play a central role in studies of the earth's climate system through natural archives. A pressing issue is the analysis of the oldest, highly thinned ice core sections, where the identification of paleoclimate signals is…
We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence…
Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods abound today, with a myriad of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature. Unfortunately, the appropriate changepoint technique to use remains unclear to many. Further…
Many important problems require modelling large-scale spatio-temporal datasets, with one prevalent example being weather forecasting. Recently, transformer-based approaches have shown great promise in a range of weather forecasting…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
Climate science has become more ambitious in recent years as global awareness about the environment has grown. To better understand climate, historical climate (e.g. archived meteorological variables such as temperature, wind, water, etc.)…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…
Over the last few decades, climate scientists have devoted much effort to the development of large numerical models of the atmosphere and the ocean. While there is no question that such models provide important and useful information on…