Related papers: Optimal policy design to mitigate epidemics on net…
Adding edges between layers of interconnected networks is an important way to optimize the spreading dynamics. While previous studies mostly focus on the case of adding a single edge, the theoretical optimal strategy for adding multiple…
We study the optimal control problem of allocating campaigning resources over the campaign duration and degree classes in a social network. Information diffusion is modeled as a Susceptible-Infected epidemic and direct recruitment of…
The task of allocating preventative resources to a computer network in order to protect against the spread of viruses is addressed. Virus spreading dynamics are described by a linearized SIS model and protection is framed by an optimization…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with variable size of population is considered. We study optimal control problem for an SIR model with "vaccination" and "treatment" as controls. It is shown that an optimal control exists. We have…
Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…
This study explores the application of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to derive optimal strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19, leveraging a novel compartmental model to capture the disease dynamics. We prioritize three key…
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be…
In this paper, we study an optimal control problem of a communicable disease in a prison population. In order to control the spread of the disease inside a prison, we consider an active case-finding strategy, consisting on screening a…
At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…
A configuration model for epidemic spread, based on a scale-free network, is introduced. We obtain the analytical solutions describing both unstable and stable dynamics of the epidemic spreading, and demonstrate how these regimes can…
This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…
We study the deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on weighted graphs. In their numerical study [10] van Mieghem et al. have shown that it is possible to learn an estimated network from a finite time sample of…
We consider epidemic extinction in finite networks with broad variation in local connectivity. Generalizing the theory of large fluctuations to random networks with a given degree distribution, we are able to predict the most probable, or…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…
We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…
The process of contagiousness spread modelling is well-known in epidemiology. However, the application of spread modelling to banking market is quite recent. In this work, we present a system of ordinary differential equations, simulating…
Game theory has been an effective tool in the control of disease spread and in suggesting optimal policies at both individual and area levels. In this paper, we propose a multi-region SEIR model based on stochastic differential game theory,…
Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models…
In this work we demonstrate how to automate parts of the infectious disease-control policy-making process via performing inference in existing epidemiological models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing the posterior…