Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies
Abstract
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2006.13012,
title = {Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies},
author = {Robin N Thompson and T Deirdre Hollingsworth and Valerie Isham and Daniel Arribas-Bel and Ben Ashby and Tom Britton and Peter Challoner and Lauren H K Chappell and Hannah Clapham and Nik J Cunniffe and A Philip Dawid and Christl A Donnelly and Rosalind Eggo and Sebastian Funk and Nigel Gilbert and Julia R Gog and Paul Glendinning and William S Hart and Hans Heesterbeek and Thomas House and Matt Keeling and Istvan Z Kiss and Mirjam Kretzschmar and Alun L Lloyd and Emma S McBryde and James M McCaw and Joel C Miller and Trevelyan J McKinley and Martina Morris and Philip D ONeill and Carl A B Pearson and Kris V Parag and Lorenzo Pellis and Juliet R C Pulliam and Joshua V Ross and Michael J Tildesley and Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba and Bernard W Silverman and Claudio J Struchiner and Pieter Trapman and Cerian R Webb and Denis Mollison and Olivier Restif},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.13012},
year = {2020}
}