Related papers: Early warning signals for critical transitions in …

In several natural and engineering systems, changes in control parameters can trigger bifurcations that lead to sustained or growing periodic oscillations, indicating the onset of oscillatory instabilities. Such emergent behaviour often…

We characterise the evolution of a dynamical system by combining two well-known complex systems' tools, namely, symbolic ordinal analysis and networks. From the ordinal representation of a time-series we construct a network in which every…

The progression of complex human diseases is associated with critical transitions across dynamical regimes. These transitions often spawn early-warning signals and provide insights into the underlying disease-driving mechanisms. In this…

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…

Changes in the timescales at which complex systems evolve are essential to predicting critical transitions and catastrophic failures. Disentangling the timescales of the dynamics governing complex systems remains a key challenge. With this…

Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…

Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterized by abrupt seizures. Although seizures may appear random, they are often preceded by early warning signs in neural signals, notably, critical slowing down, a phenomenon in which the…

Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…

Early-warning signals of delicate design are always used to predict critical transitions in complex systems, which makes it possible to render the systems far away from the catastrophic state by introducing timely interventions. Traditional…

Climate extremes present escalating risks to agriculture intensifying the need for reliable multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS). The situation is evolving due to climate change and hence such systems should have the intelligent to…

Real-world complex systems such as ecological communities and neuron networks are essential parts of our everyday lives. These systems are composed of units which interact through intricate networks. The ability to predict sudden changes in…

An important paradigm in smart health is developing diagnosis tools and monitoring a patient's heart activity through processing Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals is a key example, sue to high mortality rate of heart-related disease. However,…

Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…

We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…

In this study, we investigate prediction methods for an early warning system for a large STEM undergraduate course. Recent studies have provided evidence in favour of adopting early warning systems as a means of identifying at-risk…

We consider a model for substrate-depletion oscillations in genetic systems, based on a stochastic differential equation with a slowly evolving external signal. We show the existence of critical transitions in the system. We apply two…

Predicting critical transitions in complex systems, such as epileptic seizures in the brain, represents a major challenge in scientific research. The high-dimensional characteristics and hidden critical signals further complicate…