Related papers: Early warning signals for critical transitions in …
Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on…
Early warning systems (EWSs) are critical for forecasting and preventing economic and financial crises. EWSs are designed to provide early warning signs of financial troubles, allowing policymakers and market participants to intervene…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
Critical transitions, or large changes in the state of a system after a small change in the system's external conditions or parameters, commonly occur in a wide variety of disciplines, from the biological and social sciences to physics.…
Critical transitions are the abrupt shifts between qualitatively different states of a system, and they are crucial to understanding tipping points in complex dynamical systems across ecology, climate science, and biology. Detecting these…
Real-life systems often experience regime shifts. An early warning signal (EWS) is a quantity that attempts to anticipate such a regime shift. Because complex systems of practical interest showing regime shifts are often dynamics on…
The percolation phase transition in complex network systems attracts much attention and has numerous applications in various research fields. Finite size effects smooth the transition and make it difficult to predict the critical point of…
Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
This study constructs an integrated early warning system (EWS) that identifies and predicts stock market turbulence. Based on switching ARCH (SWARCH) filtering probabilities of the high volatility regime, the proposed EWS first classifies…
In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…
Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very…
Noise-induced phase transitions are common in various complex systems, from physics to biology. In this article, we investigate the emergence of crucial events in noise-induced phase transition processes and their potential significance for…
Climate change and natural disasters are recognized as worldwide challenges requiring complex and efficient ecosystems to deal with social, economic, and environmental effects. This chapter advocates a holistic approach, distinguishing…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
Social ecological systems are often difficult to investigate and manage because of their inherent complexity1. Small variations in external drivers can lead to abrupt changes associated with instabilities and bifurcations in the underlying…
Developing methods for detecting tipping phenomena at an early stage is an important problem in various fields such as ecology, medicine, and economics. A tipping phenomenon is characterized by a rapid transition resulting from the…
Many dynamical systems exhibit abrupt transitions or tipping as the control parameter is varied. In scenarios where the parameter is varied continuously, the rate of change of control parameter greatly affects the performance of early…
Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale…
Early-warning indicators (increase of autocorrelation and variance) are commonly applied to time series data to try and detect tipping points of real-world systems. The theory behind these indicators originates from approximating the…