Related papers: Early warning signals for critical transitions in …

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…

A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…

The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…

Early warning signals (EWSs) for complex dynamical systems aim to anticipate tipping points before they occur. While signals computed from time series data, such as temporal variance, are useful for this task, they are costly to obtain in…

Financial markets of emerging economies are vulnerable to extreme and cascading information spillovers, surges, sudden stops and reversals. With this in mind, we develop a new online early warning system (EWS) to detect what is referred to…

Regime shifts are quite common in complex systems like cell regulations, disease transmissions, ecosystems, marine ice instability, etc. Several statistical indicators known as early warning signals (EWS) have been theorized to anticipate…

Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of…

Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions -- abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal (EWS) for critical transitions by learning generic…

Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…

Successfully anticipating sudden major changes in complex systems is a practical concern. Such complex systems often form a heterogeneous network, which may show multistage transitions in which some nodes experience a regime shift earlier…

Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…

The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to slow passage through other generic bifurcations, such as…

A large variety of complex systems in ecology, climate science, biomedicine and engineering have been observed to exhibit tipping points, where the internal dynamical state of the system abruptly changes. For example, such critical…

Real-world complex systems such as the climate, ecosystems, stock markets, and combustion engines are prone to dynamical transitions from one state to another, with catastrophic consequences. State variables of such systems often exhibit…