English
Related papers

Related papers: Early warning signals for critical transitions in …

200 papers

Methods to detect the emergence of infectious diseases, and approach to the "critical transition" RE = 1, have to potential to avert substantial disease burden by facilitating preemptive actions like vaccination campaigns. Early warning…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2025-04-16 Callum R. K. Arnold , Matthew J. Ferrari

We present here two promising techniques for the application of the complex network approach to continuous spatio-temporal systems that have been developed in the last decade and show large potential for future application and development…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-07-19 Norbert Marwan , Jürgen Kurths

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 Sheng Fang , Ziyan Wang , Jürgen Kurths , Jingfang Fan

In recent years, machine learning has been adopted to complex networks, but most existing works concern about the structural properties. To use machine learning to detect phase transitions and accurately identify the critical transition…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-01-08 Qi Ni , Ming Tang , Ying Liu , Ying-Cheng Lai

Critical transitions and tipping phenomena between two meta-stable states in stochastic dynamical systems are a significant scientific issue. In this work, we expand the methodology of identifying the most probable transition pathway…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-03-12 Peng Zhang , Ting Gao , Jin Guo , Jinqiao Duan

The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from stochastic environments and noisy dynamical models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-25 Mathew Titus , Zach Gelbaum , James Watson

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-11 Haim Weissmann , Nadav M. Shnerb

Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control…

In a Nature article, Scheffer et al. presented a novel data-driven framework to predict critical transitions in complex systems. These transitions, which may stem from failures, degradation, or adversarial actions, have been attributed to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-09 Mohammad Pirani , Saber Jafarpour

Early Warning Signals (EWSs) are vital for implementing preventive measures before a disease turns into a pandemic. While new diseases exhibit unique behaviors, they often share fundamental characteristics from a dynamical systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Reza Miry , Amit K. Chakraborty , Russell Greiner , Mark A. Lewis , Hao Wang , Tianyu Guan , Pouria Ramazi

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Christian Kuehn

The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…

Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yuhan Tian , Abolfazl Safikhani

Recent advances in deep learning (DL) have prompted the development of high-performing early warning score (EWS) systems, predicting clinical deteriorations such as acute kidney injury, acute myocardial infarction, or circulatory failure.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Yuxiao Cheng , Xinxin Song , Ziqian Wang , Qin Zhong , Kunlun He , Jinli Suo

In modern advanced emergency management systems many solutions for decision support have been provided as attempts to support humans to take important decisions for the critical situations recovery. The critical situation detection is a…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2014-05-01 Massimiliano L. Itria , Alessandro Daidone , Andrea Ceccarelli

Hospitals lack automated systems to harness the growing volume of heterogeneous clinical and operational data to effectively forecast critical events. Early identification of patients at risk for deterioration is essential not only for…

A central challenge in the study of complex systems is the quantification of emergence -- understood as the ability of the system to exhibit collective behaviours that cannot be traced down to the individual components. While recent work…

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Baron Michael , Malov Sergey

Many dynamical systems, including power systems, recover from perturbations more slowly as they approach critical transitions---a phenomenon known as critical slowing down. If the system is stochastically forced, autocorrelation and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-04-23 Goodarz Ghanavati , Paul D. H. Hines , Taras I. Lakoba , Eduardo Cotilla-Sanchez

A variety of real world and experimental systems can display a drastic regime shift, as the evolution in one its paramaters crosses a threshold value. Assimilation of such a transition with a bifurcation has allowed to identify so called…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-02-22 Anselmo García Cantú Ros , Till Fluschnik , Juergen Kropp