Related papers: Big Data links from Climate to Commodity Productio…
India is the second largest producer of onions in the world, contributing over 26 million tonnes annually. However, during storage, approximately 30-40% of onions are lost due to rotting, sprouting, and weight loss. Despite being a major…
Probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly important for short-term power-system operation. With increasing renewable generation, demand-side flexibility, and storage assets, market participants need to…
In this article, we analyze the application of options contract in special commodity supply chain such as fresh agricultural products. This problem is discussed in the point of the retailer. When spot market and future market are both…
Ozone depletion events are recurring phenomena in both polar regions, characterized by significant interannual variability. In this study, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Global Deterministic Prediction System is used to…
Machine learning and statistical modeling methods were used to analyze the impact of climate change on financial wellbeing of fruit farmers in Tunisia and Chile. The analysis was based on face to face interviews with 801 farmers. Three…
We investigate group formations and strategic behaviors of renewable power producers in electricity markets. These producers currently bid into the day-ahead market in a conservative fashion because of the real-time risk associated with not…
Probabilistic forecasting in combination with stochastic programming is a key tool for handling the growing uncertainties in future energy systems. Derived from a general stochastic programming formulation for the optimal scheduling and…
Macroeconomic variables are known to significantly impact equity markets, but their predictive power for price fluctuations has been underexplored due to challenges such as infrequency and variability in timing of announcements, changing…
With the growing demand for healthy foods, agricultural product price forecasting has become increasingly important. Hass avocados, as a high-value crop, exhibit complex price fluctuations influenced by factors such as seasonality, region,…
In this paper, we assess the impact of climate shocks on futures markets for agricultural commodities and a set of macroeconomic quantities for multiple high-income economies. To capture relations among countries, markets, and climate…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
The United States, a leading global producer and consumer of beef, continues to face substantial challenges in achieving price harmonization across its regional markets. This paper evaluates the validity of the Law of One Price (LOP) in the…
Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in…
Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are forwards on the spread between an area price and the system price. Together with the system price forwards, these products are used to hedge the area price risk in the Nordic electricity market. The CfDs…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability…
A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced…
Predicting absolute magnitude of fluctuations of price, even if their sign remains unknown, is important for risk analysis and for option prices. In the present work, we display our predictions about absolute magnitude of daily fluctuations…
This article presents a generic framework for modeling the dynamics of forward curves in commodity market as commodity derivatives are typically traded by futures or forwards. We have theoretically demonstrated that commodity prices are…
This study examines the evolution of extreme Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and their impacts on South America during the austral summer. Furthermore, the study explores how the different ENSO phases modulate extreme MJO events, and…
The extent of anthropogenic influence on the Earths climate warrants studies of the ocean as a major player. The ocean circulation is important for transporting properties like heat, carbon and nutrients. A supposed major conduit is the…