Related papers: Big Data links from Climate to Commodity Productio…
A market of potato commodity for industry scale usage is engaging several types of actors. They are farmers, middlemen, and industries. A multi-agent system has been built to simulate these actors into agent entities, based on manually…
Information and communications technology (ICT) within the agricultural sector is characterized by a widespread use of proprietary data formats, a strong lack of interoperability standards, and a tight connection to specific hardware…
Time and Sales of corn futures traded electronically on the CME Group Globex are studied. Theories of continuous prices turn upside down reality of intra-day trading. Prices and their increments are discrete and obey lattice probability…
Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of…
Understanding how attitudes towards the Climate Emergency vary can hold the key to driving policy changes for effective action to mitigate climate related risk. The Oil and Gas industry account for a significant proportion of global…
India's agricultural system has been facing a severe problem of crop wastage. A key contributing factor to this problem is that many small farmers lack access to reliable cold storage that extends crop shelf-life. To avoid having leftover…
In the complex landscape of traditional futures trading, where vast data and variables like real-time Limit Order Books (LOB) complicate price predictions, we introduce the FutureQuant Transformer model, leveraging attention mechanisms to…
Accurate fruit maturity identification is essential for determining harvest timing, as incorrect assessment directly affects yield and post-harvest quality. Although ripening is a continuous biological process, vision-based maturity…
Trade networks, across which countries distribute their products, are crucial components of the globalized world economy. Their structure is strongly heterogeneous across products, given the different features of the countries which buy and…
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…
Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…
Commodity futures constitute an attractive asset class for portfolio managers. Propelled by their low correlation with other assets, commodities begin gaining popularity among investors, as they allow to capture diversification benefits.…
Accurate forecasting of commodity price spikes is vital for countries with limited economic buffers, where sudden increases can strain national budgets, disrupt import-reliant sectors, and undermine food and energy security. This paper…
Seasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice concentration is key to mitigate the negative impact and assess potential opportunities posed by the rapid decline of sea ice coverage. Seasonal prediction systems based on climate models often show…
Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
Climate change poses significant challenges to the agricultural and financial sectors, affecting crop productivity and overall financial stability. This study evaluates the robustness of the Actuaries Climate Index$^{TM}$ (ACI), a newer…
Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…
Climate change is accelerating the frequency and severity of unprecedented events, deviating from established patterns. Predicting these out-of-distribution (OOD) events is critical for assessing risks and guiding climate adaptation. While…