Related papers: Big Data links from Climate to Commodity Productio…
In empirical research, this article uses daily climate data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States to construct a temperature box with a range of 5\( ^\circ\text{C} \), focusing on…
We apply an empirical, data-driven approach for describing crop yield as a function of monthly temperature and precipitation by employing generative probabilistic models with parameters determined through Bayesian inference. Our approach is…
Climate change not only threatens agricultural producers but also strains related public agencies and financial institutions. These important food system actors include government entities tasked with insuring grower livelihoods and…
Our study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on corn farming in Ontario under several warming scenarios at the 2068 horizon. It is articulated around a discrete-time dynamic model of corn farm income with an annual time-step,…
Communication is now a standard tool in the central bank's monetary policy toolkit. Theoretically, communication provides the central bank an opportunity to guide public expectations, and it has been shown empirically that central bank…
In this paper, we build a computational model for the analysis of international wheat spot price formation, its dynamics and the dynamics of internationally exchanged quantities. The model has been calibrated using FAOSTAT data to evaluate…
This paper introduces an information-based model for the pricing of storable commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. The model uses the concept of market information about future supply and demand as a basis for valuation. Physical…
Climate change is an impending disaster which is of pressing concern more and more every year. Countless efforts have been made to study the long-term effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity. Studies…
Quantity and price risks are key uncertainties market participants face in electricity markets with increased volatility, for instance, due to high shares of renewables. From day ahead until real-time, there is a large variation in the best…
Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then…
Multiplicity distributions, P(N), provide valuable information on the mechanism of the production process. We argue that the observed P(N) contain more information (located in the small N region) than expected and used so far. We…
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and…
In this study, we apply functional regression analysis to identify the specific within-season periods during which temperature and precipitation anomalies most affect crop yields. Using provincial data for Italy from 1952 to 2023, we…
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and…
The present study investigates the price (co)volatility of four dairy commodities -- skim milk powder, whole milk powder, butter and cheddar cheese -- in three major dairy markets. It uses a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model…
Machine vision for precision agriculture has attracted considerable research interest in recent years. The goal of this paper is to develop an end-to-end cranberry health monitoring system to enable and support real time cranberry…
We propose a class of stochastic models for a dynamics of limit order book with different type of liquidities. Within this class of models we study the one where a spread decreases uniformly, belonging to the class of processes known as a…
In this work, we address a lack of systematic understanding of fluctuations in food affordability in Canada. Canada's Food Price Report (CPFR) is an annual publication that predicts food inflation over the next calendar year. The published…
We analyze the harvesting and stocking of a population that is affected by random and seasonal environmental fluctuations. The main novelty comes from having three layers of environmental fluctuations. The first layer is due to the…
We design three continuous--time models in finite horizon of a commodity price, whose dynamics can be affected by the actions of a representative risk--neutral producer and a representative risk--neutral trader. Depending on the model, the…