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Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
In recent years, the growing frequency and severity of natural disasters have increased the need for effective tools to manage catastrophe risk. Catastrophe (CAT) bonds allow the transfer of part of this risk to investors, offering an…
Apparently random financial fluctuations often exhibit varying levels of complexity, chaos. Given limited data, predictability of such time series becomes hard to infer. While efficient methods of Lyapunov exponent computation are devised,…
Black Sigatoka disease severely decreases global banana production, and climate change aggravates the problem by altering fungal species distributions. Due to the heavy financial burden of managing this infectious disease, farmers in…
Tomato prices in Kolar market exhibit high volatility alongside recurring seasonal patterns, but the consistency of these patterns across years remains unclear. This study analysed weekly tomato prices and arrivals from 2010-2024 to…
Lemons and oranges, both are the most economically significant citrus fruits globally. The production of lemons and oranges is severely affected due to diseases in its growth stages. Fruit quality has degraded due to the presence of flaws.…
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a gigantic tropical weather system, is marked by eastward travel of cumulus cloud clusters over the Indo-Pacific region and often causes severe weather and climate events worldwide. The physics and…
Jujube is a fruit mainly cultivated in India, China and Iran and has many health benefits. It is sold both fresh and dried. There are several factors in jujube pricing such as weight, wrinkles and defections. Some jujube farmers sell their…
I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I…
Climate is an evolving complex system with dynamic interactions and non-linear feedback mechanisms, shaping environmental and socio-economic outcomes. Crop production is highly sensitive to climatic fluctuations (and many other…
50 year-long time series from a Long Term Agronomic Experiment have been used to to investigate the effects of climate change on yields of Wheat and Maize. Trends and fluctuations, useful to estimate production forecasts and related risks…
Temperature fluctuations significantly affect microorganism growth and pest activities in grain pile, precise monitoring and forecasting temperature of stored grain are essential for maintaining the quality and safety of grain storage. This…
This paper consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to empirical analysis of consolidated order book (COB) for the index RTS futures. In the second part we consider Poissonian multi--agent model of the COB. By varying parameters of…
The price clustering phenomenon manifesting itself as an increased occurrence of specific prices is widely observed and well-documented for various financial instruments and markets. In the literature, however, it is rarely incorporated…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical atmospheric variability on intraseasonal timescales, and reliable MJO predictions are essential for protecting lives and mitigating impacts on societal assets. However,…
We propose a stylized model of production and exchange in which long-term investors set their production decision over a horizon {\tau} , the "time to produce", and are liquidity constrained, while financial investors trade over a much…
Humid heat stress and heatwaves pose significant risks for living organisms, from humans and wildlife to insects. These threats have wide-ranging health, ecological, and socio-economic impacts that are expected to worsen with climate…
One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product…
Climate (change) affects the prices of goods and services in different countries or regions differently. Simply relying on aggregate measures or summary statistics, such as the impact of average country temperature changes on HICP headline…